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November 25, 2020, 12:20:59 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Emerson: Greenfield +4 in IA, Peters +5 in MI
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Author Topic: Emerson: Greenfield +4 in IA, Peters +5 in MI  (Read 797 times)
#SaveTheSenate
VARepublican
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« on: November 01, 2020, 09:10:40 AM »

Oct 29-31

IA - 604 LV, MoE: 3.9%
Greenfield (D) 48%
Ernst (R-inc) 44%
Other 2%
Undecided 6%

MI - 700 LV, MoE: 3.4%
Peters (D-inc) 50%
James (R) 45%
Other 2%
Undecided 2%

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/super-poll-sunday-polling-in-the-midwest-shows-biden-ahead-in-michigan-and-tight-races-in-ohio-and-iowa
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 09:11:26 AM »

but muh selzer
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 09:11:47 AM »

Still Memerson. Have a hard time seeing IA and MI being in the same tier, but hey, senate races can surprise us sometimes
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 09:13:29 AM »

Great news, Dems are gonna have AZ, CO, IA, ME, NC to solidify at least 51 seats so even if Pence votes for Trump on Jan 3rd Biden and Harris will be Prez and Veep, the last chance Trump has to circumvent the PVI and win on a technicality

I said the Rs are unlikely to have a Tie in the Senate
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swf541
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 09:20:29 AM »

Gold Standard Emerson Incoming?

(I doubt it but will enjoy roasting Selzer on Wednesday if this happens)
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 09:20:39 AM »

Emerson was right in the governor race lol
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 09:24:28 AM »

After consistently trashing Emerson for the last 6 months.. Atlas will now hold them up as a superior polling outfit to Selzer. lmao.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 09:29:17 AM »

After consistently trashing Emerson for the last 6 months.. Atlas will now hold them up as a superior polling outfit to Selzer. lmao.

It's astonishing, and like I've said before, Emerson's results have always been reasonable, in my view. Note how both Emerson and Selzer are in agreement that Trump is favored in Iowa, although by different margins.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2020, 09:42:52 AM »

After consistently trashing Emerson for the last 6 months.. Atlas will now hold them up as a superior polling outfit to Selzer. lmao.

The trashing hasn't been consistent. The usual suspects were using the last Emerson poll showing Ernst ahead as proof that a 'lean D' rating was wrong (I believe it was wrong anyway, but that's beside the point). The one thing that has been consistent is the trashing of polls that don't fit one's priors.
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Dr. Frankenstein
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2020, 09:44:34 AM »

After consistently trashing Emerson for the last 6 months.. Atlas will now hold them up as a superior polling outfit to Selzer. lmao.

It's astonishing, and like I've said before, Emerson's results have always been reasonable, in my view. Note how both Emerson and Selzer are in agreement that Trump is favored in Iowa, although by different margins.

Well, tbf, the margin is pretty important in this situation. A Trump +7 win would certainly mean that Ernst wins as well. On the other hand, if Trump only wins by 1 or 2 (maybe even 3) points, Rs could very well lose the Senate seat.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2020, 09:48:14 AM »

After consistently trashing Emerson for the last 6 months.. Atlas will now hold them up as a superior polling outfit to Selzer. lmao.

It's astonishing, and like I've said before, Emerson's results have always been reasonable, in my view. Note how both Emerson and Selzer are in agreement that Trump is favored in Iowa, although by different margins.

Well, tbf, the margin is pretty important in this situation. A Trump +7 win would certainly mean that Ernst wins as well. On the other hand, if Trump only wins by 1 or 2 (maybe even 3) points, Rs could very well lose the Senate seat.

You're certainly correct about this.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2020, 09:54:11 AM »

IA
Oct 29-31
604 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%
Changes with Oct 19-21
With leaners: Greenfield +3

Greenfield 51% (+4)
Ernst 48% (-3)
Someone else 2% (-2)
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Ses
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2020, 09:58:14 AM »

The one takeaway: Greenfieldís outperformance (in a state Biden doesnít even need) is real.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2020, 10:04:00 AM »

I mean, maybe Emerson will be right and Selzer will be wrong, but Iím not getting my hopes up.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2020, 10:05:27 AM »

MI
Oct 29-30
700 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with Oct 6-7

With leaners: Peters +6%

Peters 52% (+1)
James 46% (+5)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2020, 10:15:00 AM »

I mean, maybe Emerson will be right and Selzer will be wrong, but Iím not getting my hopes up.

Selzer will nearly absolutely be wrong. If Trump and Ernst are winning, they are not winning by 7 and 4.
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SN2903
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2020, 11:49:20 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2020, 11:53:12 AM by SN2903 »

Ernst race is Safe R. James race is lean R. Biden is collapsing.
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SN2903
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2020, 11:53:48 AM »

I mean, maybe Emerson will be right and Selzer will be wrong, but Iím not getting my hopes up.

Selzer will nearly absolutely be wrong. If Trump and Ernst are winning, they are not winning by 7 and 4.
Yeah they're undercounting Trumps margin. Trump will win iowa by 10 and Ernst by 6.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2020, 12:53:32 PM »

I mean, maybe Emerson will be right and Selzer will be wrong, but Iím not getting my hopes up.

You mean like it happened two years ago?
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2020, 01:42:44 PM »

I mean, maybe Emerson will be right and Selzer will be wrong, but Iím not getting my hopes up.

You mean like it happened two years ago?

It happened with the parties flipped, but when was the last time Selzer underestimated Democrats in IA?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2020, 04:47:58 PM »

I mean, maybe Emerson will be right and Selzer will be wrong, but Iím not getting my hopes up.

You mean like it happened two years ago?

It happened with the parties flipped, but when was the last time Selzer underestimated Democrats in IA?

When was the last time Emerson overestimated Democrats in IA?
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2020, 04:53:05 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2020, 04:57:07 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

OP is only back due to fact his ban is ending soon in 2020 topics, he was quiet when Trump was losing all Summer long by 10/15 pts😭😭😭

Get real, Trump is losing, Biden isn't ethically challenged like Hillary😀😀😀

Don Jr is corrupted like Hunter Biden, the difference is that Don Jr is the most disliked person in politics
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President Johnson
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2020, 04:56:23 PM »

Lmao, I'm not counting on Iowa. Ossoff and Warnock have a better shot at winning.
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All eyes have seen the glory of the crushing of the Trump
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2020, 04:56:54 PM »

I mean, maybe Emerson will be right and Selzer will be wrong, but Iím not getting my hopes up.

You mean like it happened two years ago?

It happened with the parties flipped, but when was the last time Selzer underestimated Democrats in IA?
The Selzer poll is very dubious and was possibly tampered due to the supposed interviewing of a non-existant voter. My advice is just ignore it altogether.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2020, 06:45:35 PM »

In fairness to Emerson they were actually more accurate with their Iowa 2018 Gubernatorial race poll than Selzer was. I don't know what exactly that means, but it's worth noting. If the Selzer poll is ruining your weekend, average it with this.
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