Data For Progress: Biden +10 nationally
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Author Topic: Data For Progress: Biden +10 nationally  (Read 818 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: November 01, 2020, 02:55:38 PM »
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kireev
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 03:01:12 PM »
That's quite a difference compared to the YouGov poll among likely voters yet to cast ballot:  Trump +1 only.
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 03:02:42 PM »
Quote from: kireev on November 01, 2020, 03:01:12 PM
That's quite a difference compared to the YouGov poll among likely voters yet to cast ballot:  Trump +1 only.
yea not buying trump +1 on ED at all lol
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 03:04:10 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on November 01, 2020, 03:02:42 PM
Quote from: kireev on November 01, 2020, 03:01:12 PM
That's quite a difference compared to the YouGov poll among likely voters yet to cast ballot:  Trump +1 only.
yea not buying trump +1 on ED at all lol

I don't think it'll be that close either. But if you look at Florida where 65% of Florida Republicans have voted early, it does make one think the election day vote wont be as lopsided
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Yank2133
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 03:05:07 PM »
Quote from: kireev on November 01, 2020, 03:01:12 PM
That's quite a difference compared to the YouGov poll among likely voters yet to cast ballot:  Trump +1 only.

If that is accurate then Trump will lose by double digits.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 03:05:15 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on November 01, 2020, 03:02:42 PM
Quote from: kireev on November 01, 2020, 03:01:12 PM
That's quite a difference compared to the YouGov poll among likely voters yet to cast ballot:  Trump +1 only.
yea not buying trump +1 on ED at all lol


Lol
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kireev
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 03:10:00 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on November 01, 2020, 03:02:42 PM
Quote from: kireev on November 01, 2020, 03:01:12 PM
That's quite a difference compared to the YouGov poll among likely voters yet to cast ballot:  Trump +1 only.
yea not buying trump +1 on ED at all lol

Me too, but their proportions of EV votes and election day votes are clearly different than in the YouGov poll.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 03:11:46 PM »
Quote from: kireev on November 01, 2020, 03:01:12 PM
That's quite a difference compared to the YouGov poll among likely voters yet to cast ballot:  Trump +1 only.

Not a good comparison.  DFP was in the field Oct. 28-29.  "Yet to cast a ballot" would include people planning to vote early in person after that, along with those who had absentee ballots yet to be returned, in addition to those planning to vote on Election Day.  YouGov only reported the last group.
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kireev
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2020, 03:13:35 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 01, 2020, 03:11:46 PM
Quote from: kireev on November 01, 2020, 03:01:12 PM
That's quite a difference compared to the YouGov poll among likely voters yet to cast ballot:  Trump +1 only.

Not a good comparison.  DFP was in the field Oct. 28-29.  "Yet to cast a ballot" would include people planning to vote early in person after that, along with those who had absentee ballots yet to be returned, in addition to those planning to vote on Election Day.  YouGov only reported the last group.

You are right: it partially explains the difference, but not the whole 40% difference.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2020, 03:16:41 PM »
Changes with Oct 20
1403 likely voters
MoE: 2.6%

Biden 54% (n/c)
Trump 44% (n/c)
Hawkins 1%
Jorgensen 1%

'A different candidate' previously at 2%
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2020, 07:01:02 PM »
It's too bad that Selzer poll negates all of this. Biden is going to gain significant ground in all the Clinton states (minus Minnesota) and all the other states remain the same from 2016.
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