NM - Research & Polling Inc.: Lujan +8

[VAR]

Oct 23-29, 1180 LV, MoE: 2.9%

Changes with Aug 26-Sept 2.

Lujan (D) 52% (+3)
Ronchetti (R) 44% (+4)
Walsh (L) 3% (-1)
Undecided 1% (-6)

PRES: 54-42 Biden

https://www.abqjournal.com/1513177/lujan-leads-ronchetti-in-race-for-us-senate.html

[Woody]

Weak Likely D.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Either solid likely D or weak safe D. Really hard to see how Lujan loses in anything close to this national environment, but the few polls we have gotten are underwhelming and the lack of pollling itself creates a lot of ambiguity.

Fun fact; my model thinks Ds are more likely to win CO-Sen than NM-Sen, even though Lujan usually wins by more

[Calthrina950]

It's interesting how underwhelming Lujan's leads have been in the polls, and it would be an astonishing result if the margin actually ended up within single digits.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

These guys got +7 in the governor race and were off by 7. So I wouldn't put too much stock into this

[ON Progressive]

It's interesting how underwhelming Lujan's leads have been in the polls, and it would be an astonishing result if the margin actually ended up within single digits.

It’s because New Mexico polls always strongly underestimate Democrats due to large Hispanic and Native American populations.

[Calthrina950]

It's interesting how underwhelming Lujan's leads have been in the polls, and it would be an astonishing result if the margin actually ended up within single digits.

It’s because New Mexico polls always strongly underestimate Democrats due to large Hispanic and Native American populations.

So that means it's more likely that Lujan wins by low double digits then? At any rate, it appears that he will underperform Biden, who has been leading by double digits in every poll I've seen of this state.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: New Mexico Senator by Research & Polling Inc on 2020-10-29

Summary: D: 52%, R: 44%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details