IA-Selzer: Ernst +4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kim Reynolds is still very popular in IA even in Covid that's why Ernst stands a chance

[wbrocks67]

Is Selzer joking with this entire poll? (including IA-01 being R+15)

Selzer is respected and an A+ pollster. But everyone can agree that a 46-42 result 3 days before the election is outright ridiculous and asinine. I mean come on.

[Xing]

Subsamples are bound to be questionable, but that doesn’t mean we should throw away this poll. While losing IA doesn’t mean Democrats won’t win control of the Senate, it’s still discouraging to see contests breaking for the Republicans, given everything that’s happened this year. If Democrats do take the Senate, we’re probably looking at 51 or 52 seats at the most. If this is the best that Democrats can do when Republicans have done everything they can to push Americans away from them, I’m not overly optimistic.

Now, the doomers who are saying that Biden is done for are being ridiculous, but we shouldn’t throw away polls suggesting it might be a more modest win for Biden and that the Senate is not a done deal for Democrats. This election could be an anti-climactic Democratic ripple.

[KYRockefeller]

Subsamples are bound to be questionable, but that doesn’t mean we should throw away this poll. While losing IA doesn’t mean Democrats won’t win control of the Senate, it’s still discouraging to see contests breaking for the Republicans, given everything that’s happened this year. If Democrats do take the Senate, we’re probably looking at 51 or 52 seats at the most. If this is the best that Democrats can do when Republicans have done everything they can to push Americans away from them, I’m not overly optimistic.

Now, the doomers who are saying that Biden is done for are being ridiculous, but we shouldn’t throw away polls suggesting it might be a more modest win for Biden and that the Senate is not a done deal for Democrats. This election could be an anti-climactic Democratic ripple.

COVID fatigue is very real and Trump's recent pivot that Biden will just shut down everything if elected - a fear bolstered by the steps some European governments are making recently - is resonating in some places (not that I agree with Trump's stance/argument on COVID at all).  Since rural areas have tended to be more skeptical of COVID than urban areas or the suburbs, this shift doesn't surprise me in the least.

[politicallefty]

Under what authority would POTUS have to mandate and enforce a national lockdown? It's different for the governors, who generally have broad police powers. There are places where POTUS could act, such as airports and whatever areas and facilities that are under federal jurisdiction. A good portion of the country has already been under lockdown once and we're probably going to need another, but it will be authorized and enforced by the governors (not to mention we'll be facing collapse of the healthcare system if it has to wait for January 20th).

[Calthrina950]

Under what authority would POTUS have to mandate and enforce a national lockdown? It's different for the governors, who generally have broad police powers. There are places where POTUS could act, such as airports and whatever areas and facilities that are under federal jurisdiction. A good portion of the country has already been under lockdown once and we're probably going to need another, but it will be authorized and enforced by the governors (not to mention we'll be facing collapse of the healthcare system if it has to wait for January 20th).

It's disheartening that we have to be re-imposing restrictions, and potentially heading into a renewed series of localized shutdowns, at this juncture in the pandemic. It's as if nothing has changed since March, and everything has gotten worse. As for political implications, it's possible that coronavirus fatigue may be having an effect on the election as we head into the final days. But I'll wait until Election Night to make judgment on that.

[libertpaulian]

Under what authority would POTUS have to mandate and enforce a national lockdown? It's different for the governors, who generally have broad police powers. There are places where POTUS could act, such as airports and whatever areas and facilities that are under federal jurisdiction. A good portion of the country has already been under lockdown once and we're probably going to need another, but it will be authorized and enforced by the governors (not to mention we'll be facing collapse of the healthcare system if it has to wait for January 20th).

It's disheartening that we have to be re-imposing restrictions, and potentially heading into a renewed series of localized shutdowns, at this juncture in the pandemic. It's as if nothing has changed since March, and everything has gotten worse. As for political implications, it's possible that coronavirus fatigue may be having an effect on the election as we head into the final days. But I'll wait until Election Night to make judgment on that.

Who would said fatigue favor?

[Calthrina950]

Under what authority would POTUS have to mandate and enforce a national lockdown? It's different for the governors, who generally have broad police powers. There are places where POTUS could act, such as airports and whatever areas and facilities that are under federal jurisdiction. A good portion of the country has already been under lockdown once and we're probably going to need another, but it will be authorized and enforced by the governors (not to mention we'll be facing collapse of the healthcare system if it has to wait for January 20th).

It's disheartening that we have to be re-imposing restrictions, and potentially heading into a renewed series of localized shutdowns, at this juncture in the pandemic. It's as if nothing has changed since March, and everything has gotten worse. As for political implications, it's possible that coronavirus fatigue may be having an effect on the election as we head into the final days. But I'll wait until Election Night to make judgment on that.

Who would said fatigue favor?

In my view, Biden. But I've seen the claims that fatigue will work to Trump's advantage, since he's staked himself out as being the "anti-lockdown" candidate, even though he has grossly mismanaged this pandemic and could very well be responsible for the sorry situation that we are heading back into.

[politicallefty]

It's disheartening that we have to be re-imposing restrictions, and potentially heading into a renewed series of localized shutdowns, at this juncture in the pandemic. It's as if nothing has changed since March, and everything has gotten worse. As for political implications, it's possible that coronavirus fatigue may be having an effect on the election as we head into the final days. But I'll wait until Election Night to make judgment on that.

I don't like it any more than you do, but we're not going to have much choice. It'll either be lockdowns or collapse of the healthcare system and thousands of deaths per day. Unfortunately, not much has changed for a lot people. The one big positive is that a good portion of the country is under mask mandates (even if not 100% compliance, at least the vast majority). Last time I went to the grocery store a couple days ago, only people I ever saw without masks were small children (like kindergarten age). That may help to a certain extent. However, restaurants, bars, and various other businesses are going to need to close (at least for sit-down services). Some can stay partially open through take-out and delivery services, but otherwise Congress needs to help them. They need to be paid to shutdown their sit-down services and things similar to that. The national debt can take the hit, but the small businesses cannot.

I have coronavirus fatigue myself, but that's part of the reason I voted for Joe Biden. I want a President who will take this seriously and listen to the scientists/doctors and help get us through this. Trump could've done that, but he chose otherwise. I would never have voted for him, but he still could've done the right thing and he could've been cruising to reelection.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m not in the mood for ‘snarky’ or ‘obnoxious’ posts right now, certainly not before a single vote has been counted, westroopnerd.

All I’ve been saying for years is that IA isn’t even close to the tipping-point state in either the presidential race or the path to the Senate majority. Put simply, these two statements...

1) Joni Ernst is more likely than not to win reelection (although it’s not a done deal in this environment).

2) Democrats can easily flip the Senate and win a sizable majority in the chamber.

...aren’t mutually exclusive at all. Realizing this doesn’t make me some genius.

[Catalyst138]

The idea that Democrats should have not put any money into this race is bizarre. It’s clearly close! Of course Iowa is moving towards the Republicans in general but Greenfield still has a chance to win.

If Ernst wins by 1% then it makes no sense to claim this was an unwinnable race and Dems wasted their money.

[jamestroll]

Subsamples are bound to be questionable, but that doesn’t mean we should throw away this poll. While losing IA doesn’t mean Democrats won’t win control of the Senate, it’s still discouraging to see contests breaking for the Republicans, given everything that’s happened this year. If Democrats do take the Senate, we’re probably looking at 51 or 52 seats at the most. If this is the best that Democrats can do when Republicans have done everything they can to push Americans away from them, I’m not overly optimistic.

Now, the doomers who are saying that Biden is done for are being ridiculous, but we shouldn’t throw away polls suggesting it might be a more modest win for Biden and that the Senate is not a done deal for Democrats. This election could be an anti-climactic Democratic ripple.

COVID fatigue is very real and Trump's recent pivot that Biden will just shut down everything if elected - a fear bolstered by the steps some European governments are making recently - is resonating in some places (not that I agree with Trump's stance/argument on COVID at all).  Since rural areas have tended to be more skeptical of COVID than urban areas or the suburbs, this shift doesn't surprise me in the least.

Biden is not going to shut the United States down but I absolutely see your points as someone who is vigorously anti shutdown

[jamestroll]

Despite the poll potentially having problems I did change my prediction from Greenfield to Ernst. And I actually did so a day before the poll was released.

Suburbs will carry Biden over in the midwestern states he wins. Not the Obama Trump areas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Despite the poll potentially having problems I did change my prediction from Greenfield to Ernst. And I actually did so a day before the poll was released.

Suburbs will carry Biden over in the midwestern states he wins. Not the Obama Trump areas.

You changed your prediction and it's a poll within margin of error
.
The remaining Tossups aside from GA are all within margin of error

Bullock tied
Bollier tied
Graham plus 2
Cornyn plus 50
Sullivan plus 3

Rs aren't gonna sweep the remaining Tossups since Trump is at 44 percent