FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +2
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  FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +2
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Author Topic: FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +2  (Read 3449 times)
politicallefty
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« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2020, 11:21:02 PM »

I've long thought Florida will be within 3% (probably 2%) no matter which it goes. This poll does nothing to change my view. If anything, it reinforces that belief.

Very bold prediction.

Obviously what I meant was that it means we're not getting a Bush 2004 result like some seem to have been thinking from the start or for awhile (on either side or for either candidate).
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2020, 11:25:47 PM »


I remember the district level polls from St. Pete were much friendlier towards Biden. He was outrunning Nelson/Gillum virtually everywhere.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2020, 11:37:24 PM »

If that sample is R+5, the real number is probably Biden +2.
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riceowl
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« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2020, 11:37:41 PM »

Got it, Florida is voting 19 points to the right of Wisconsin.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2020, 11:40:44 PM »

This poll also has Biden winning Hispanics +4 which I personally find hard to believe.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2020, 11:43:01 PM »

Given this was Trump's best higher quality Florida pollster the margin moving against him at the end is not particularly good for him....

Fits with what PPP said about last-minute movement toward Biden.
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philly09
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2020, 11:44:01 PM »

Given this was Trump's best higher quality Florida pollster the margin moving against him at the end is not particularly good for him....

Fits with what PPP said about last-minute movement toward Biden.

Along with Da Numbers Guy saying the GOP has failed to overtake the Democrats in the EV.
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philly09
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« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2020, 11:50:17 PM »

Steve feels the sample is too GOP.

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Ferguson97
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« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2020, 11:55:56 PM »



Weird cross tabs
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2020, 01:03:55 AM »

D+7 in PA and R+2 in PA makes no sense (taken together).
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morgieb
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2020, 01:04:04 AM »

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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2020, 01:19:07 AM »

D+7 in PA and R+2 in PA makes no sense (taken together).

They make about much sense together as Michigan +7 and Wisconsin +17.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2020, 01:39:29 AM »

I do think 2020 could end up being a very transformative/realigning election for FL and TX, much like (ironically) 1992. I don’t buy that FL is a ‘titanium tilt R’ state, but if (big if) Biden loses FL this year in a D+7-9 national victory while coming within a point or so of winning TX or even flipping the state, I could see FL and TX trading places, with much more attention being paid to TX than FL by both parties in future elections.

I don’t expect FL to ever become as reliably Republican as TX in the 2000s or anything (at least not at the presidential level), but at the very least it could cement its position as the most populous Republican-leaning state with this election, not unlike TX after 1992.
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OBD
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« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2020, 01:41:52 AM »

If Georgia (and possibly Texas) votes to the left of Florida I will laugh. Not out of disbelief, mind you, it's a very legitimate possibility.
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Don Vito Corleone
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« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2020, 02:04:54 AM »

I do think 2020 could end up being a very transformative/realigning election for FL and TX, much like (ironically) 1992.
Sorry, what would be ironic about it?
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2020, 02:06:35 AM »

This poll seems R biased as it is R-biased. Well see what NyT/Siena and others have to say
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2020, 02:29:09 AM »

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philly09
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« Reply #42 on: November 01, 2020, 02:55:49 AM »



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BlueSwan
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« Reply #43 on: November 01, 2020, 03:30:06 AM »

Another awful poll. Getting serious 2016 redux vibes.
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philly09
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« Reply #44 on: November 01, 2020, 04:16:41 AM »

Another awful poll. Getting serious 2016 redux vibes.

Good lord

1. The sample is very GOP friendly, possibly too GOP friendly.

2. Trump *lost* 2 points since the last one, that's a gain for Biden.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #45 on: November 01, 2020, 04:43:01 AM »

Imagine a world where two states that voted the same in 2016 now are 19 points apart.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #46 on: November 18, 2020, 02:40:56 PM »

Finally a high quality poll that didn't blow it
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #47 on: November 18, 2020, 04:08:47 PM »

If that sample is R+5, the real number is probably Biden +2.


The "real number"? I thought we were against unskewing?

The exit poll shows R+7 (lol!) and Hispanics at Biden +5. I don't necessarily trust that but this poll was actually reliable.

Finally a high quality poll that didn't blow it

Yeah, good thing they didn't embarrass themselves elsewhere

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