MT - The Progress Campaign (D): TIE

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/WhosWinning2020/status/1322213380309061633

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news if Bullock wins, even if Pence votes for Trump for Prez in the EC vote math in Jan there will be 51 D's to vote for Harris and Biden, and Kate Williams will flip MT delegation to D helping the delegation math along with AK and PA flipping, thus giving D's the delegate majority in House

The very last chance Trump would have to get back in office

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's better than a Daines lead. This is really going to come down to the wire though! If we're lucky it will resemble Hassan vs. Ayotte or Scott vs. Nelson. It will probably be just as close as those elections too.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Assuming it's another likely voters poll, changes are with their April 14-21 survey:

Bullock 48% (-1)
Daines 48% (+2)

[Xing]

Never heard of this pollster. Either way, still a Toss-Up with a slight advantage to Daines. We probably won’t know the winner until early Wednesday morning at the earliest. The reactions to this race, IA, ME, and NC are going to be... interesting to see.

[MT Treasurer]

That Emerson poll notwithstanding, this is what the last ten polls have shown:

PPP (D): 48-47
Progress Campaign (D): 48-48
MSU Billings: 48-47
Siena College: 46-49
Strategies 360/NBC Montana: 47-48
RMG: 47-49
PPP: 48-48
Progress Campaign (D): 48-47
MSU Bozeman: 49-47
Siena College: 44-45

This kind of consensus among pollsters is certainly... interesting, given that polls for the 2018 Senate race were often all over the place.

I do think we will know the winner before early Wednesday morning in the sense that we may not get a call before that time, but enough of the mail-in ballots will be in (they’ll start counting them on Monday in some places)/enough bellwether counties will have reported by then for us to get a good general sense of where the race is headed. I don’t think Daines can win if the race is nip and tuck throughout the night and he doesn’t hold a sizable lead (i.e., at least 5 points or so) before ~75% of the vote has been counted.

[Lief 🗽]

Is this a real polling firm? I was going to add it to the Atlas database but it doesn't seem like 538 adds these to theirs.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Is this a real polling firm? I was going to add it to the Atlas database but it doesn't seem like 538 adds these to theirs.

They seem legit. When 538 first assessed them, they examined early surveys of theirs that were apparently non-scientific but not denoted as such and banned them. They claim to be trying to go through the vetting process again but have delayed it until after the election. 538 hasn't said much since the ban so it could all be nonsense.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thing about it, not just Ernst losing, Graham is endangered and D's can pick up KS all as wave insurance as well as TX

Rs aren't sweeping the remaining Tossups if Trump is at 44 percent, including GA, Ossoff won't gave a runoff if he gets 50

[Bootes Void]

Steve Bullock gotta finish it strong otherwise Montana will be very disappointed and look for someone else

[Hope For A New Era]

Get that turnout going, MDP! Let's keep the ultimate ticket-splitting state going for one more cycle.