MO-02 - GOP internal (alleged by WSJ): Biden +6%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1322635428906688513

[Bootes Void]

TRUMP +11 district. I think McCaskill won here narrowly. Those Remington polls seem accurate

[tenyasha]

are we allowed to post polls that supposedly exist without crosstabs or anything on here?

[Orwell]

are we allowed to post polls that supposedly exist without crosstabs or anything on here?

It depends on the source.

[Ferguson97]

Missouri 9 points to the left of Iowa confirmed?

[Rand]

More good news for Biden.

[Podgy the Bear]

This is going to mean trouble for Ann Wagner, the MO-02 congressional incumbent.  Sabato and Cook have it as a toss-up.

[Hope For A New Era]

This is going to mean trouble for Ann Wagner, the MO-02 congressional incumbent.  Sabato and Cook have it as a toss-up.

It's honestly Lean D at this point.

[tenyasha]

Can i ask does anyone know what polling in this district looked like in 2016?

[Roll Roons]

Can i ask does anyone know what polling in this district looked like in 2016?

Idk about polling, but it was Trump +11 and Wagner +21.

[The Mikado]

If Iowa really votes to the right of Missouri, then Ann Selzer is a true genius visionary.

I'm not betting on that, though.

[Pericles]

Looks like this district is sprinting to the left, Wagner is the underdog.

[tenyasha]

are district level polling usually more accurate than state level?

[swf541]

are district level polling usually more accurate than state level?

Yes they were more reflective in 16+18 at the least

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It's amazing how much Republicans are crumbling in the (ultrawhite) suburbs of second tier Midwestern metros. Indianapolis, St. Louis, Kansas City, etc.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's amazing how much Republicans are crumbling in the (ultrawhite) suburbs of second tier Midwestern metros. Indianapolis, St. Louis, Kansas City, etc.

They’re probably also doing so in Milwaukee, Des Moines, Grand Rapids, Pittsburgh, and all of the “three C’s” in Ohio.

[tenyasha]

was there any leaks like this during 2016 though?

[MT Treasurer]

This is a poll of a congressional district which will obviously swing more strongly to the Democrats than the state as a whole (as well as any other congressional district in the state) so it shouldn’t be extrapolated into statewide swing. That said, I don’t think MO and IA not voting that far (i.e., no more than 4-5 points) apart is as unlikely as some here are making it out to be in our ‘realignment’ in which Democrats are more reliant than ever on strength in metropolitan areas. It should be noted that the rurals in this state basically completed their transition before the suburban/exurban areas (the D trend in the St. Louis/Kansas City areas and even Springfield to a lesser extent is still lagging behind the D shifts in metros of other states, and there’s every reason to believe that McCaskill underperformed generic D in many of these counties) and that Republicans have more room for further gains in rural/small-town IA than MO, although I’m still expecting MO to end up to the right of IA, of course. I do predict that MO will vote a few points to the left of IN this time, however.

[VAR]

r internal so he's actually down by double digits, rip wagner

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Landslide Lyndon and wbrooks87 told us that it was gonna be a D sweep due to how much Biden raised money 💰💰💰 for D's on Act Blue, not

[lfromnj]

According to Reagente with Provisionals trickling down its around Trump +0.5.

[Hope For A New Era]

According to Reagente with Provisionals trickling down its around Trump +0.5.

Education's the thing here, I think. St. Charles County (where a large portion of the district is) is much less educated than would be expected. Probably part of the reason for its resistance to #trends.