IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[GALeftist]

Bro this definitely means nothing for Wisconsin or Minnesota even if true lmao. If Biden loses Minnesota he's getting blown out, and Wisconsin isn't really that similar to Iowa (plus his margin in polls is frankly very comfortable). Means more for Ohio imo, but all my homies hate Ohio anyway.

[DrScholl]

I'm seriously convinced that this is an outlier now. Trump hasn't been up that much in any poll since March and at minimum Biden has been hitting 46% in recent polling. Selzer is in for a miss this year.

This is the gold standard of polling, and IA polls always overestimate Democrats.

They failed to release their final primary poll this year and I suspect that was because they were afraid of being wrong and not just because they left a candidate out. Every pollster ends up being wrong eventually and this poll has never ever had a Democratic bias.

[GALeftist]

This forum thought for months that Biden was winning Michigan by 15%.

Lmfao.

Ayo this man thinks Trump has a chance in Michigan

[Lief 🗽]

Go back and read the Atlas thread discussing the final Selzer poll in 2016. People were sticking their heads in the sand then too. This is a really ominous sign.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I take it this page is gonna reach 6 pages by Midnight EST?

Changing my prediction to 12 pages by 9 PM EST. Christ...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322684447817453569

[swf541]

I'm seriously convinced that this is an outlier now. Trump hasn't been up that much in any poll since March and at minimum Biden has been hitting 46% in recent polling. Selzer is in for a miss this year.

This is the gold standard of polling, and IA polls always overestimate Democrats.

They failed to release their final primary poll this year and I suspect that was because they were afraid of being wrong and not just because they left a candidate out. Every pollster ends up being wrong eventually and this poll has never ever had a Democratic bias.

Great post and 100% agreed.

This is gearing up to be a potentially extremely high turnout election that may be difficult to properly model in polls.

But hey trend doomers and trumpers gonna be trumpers and doomers smh

[bandg]

And the trend of 2020 polls almost exactly matching their 2016 counterparts continues apace...

This is outright false

DMR
Marquette
Morning Call
Quinnipiac in PA
NYT/Siena in PA (at least so far)
Marist in NC

[Old Man Willow]

IA has no patience for rioting and intersectionality.

[dspNY]

I think this is an outlier. Why is Trump still going to Iowa if he's up 7 and trailing in lots of other places (I think he's ahead there but it's much closer, maybe 2-3 points)

[Horus]

I take it this page is gonna reach 6 pages by Midnight EST?

Changing my prediction to 12 pages by 9 PM EST. Christ...

Well, it's a terrible sign for Biden. Most of this forum wants America to be free of fascism. Should we be happy? What's your point?

[new_patomic]

They're the gold standard... until they're not.

That doesn't mean they're wrong here, or that the results won't end up in the margin of error of where they have it. But it isn't impossible for them to have misjudged the race, or for there to be healthy skepticism.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Don’t you worry though, even if Biden ends up winning AZ, GA and TX by just as much as MI/PA/WI, I’m sure the media will still give an obscene portion of attention to the old white midwesterners in diners in 2024 and disregard the south as another fluke.

[DrScholl]

But you fail to realize that Trump is still trailing in enough states to lose. He's behind in the Republican stronghold of Texas and if he loses Texas winning Iowa means nothing.

[Shilly]

I feel sick.
It's happening again.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322684447817453569

Yes, Selzer can be wrong.. it generally underestimates republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We should not be going by polls because most people have stopped polling us, You gov certainly isn't doing any more polls. Pollsters keep putting out polls and the Election is Tues.  Dems stopped taking on line polls that's why polls are showing movement to Rs

[DrScholl]

I think this is an outlier. Why is Trump still going to Iowa if he's up 7 and trailing in lots of other places (I think he's ahead there but it's much closer, maybe 2-3 points)

If this poll said 2-3 then it wouldn't seem so off, but Trump up 7 with Biden only at 41% seems off. It's like they are closer to Trump's number but are way under counting Biden.

[libertpaulian]

There's no way Trump made up THAT much ground with independents.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

But you fail to realize that Trump is still trailing in enough states to lose. He's behind in the Republican stronghold of Texas and if he loses Texas winning Iowa means nothing.

There are some people on here that are living in the 2012 era and can’t wrap their heads around that scary idea of letting Iowa “go”.

[swf541]

But you fail to realize that Trump is still trailing in enough states to lose. He's behind in the Republican stronghold of Texas and if he loses Texas winning Iowa means nothing.

There are some people on here that are living in the 2012 era and can’t wrap their heads around that scary idea of letting Iowa “go”.

Oh this is definitely true Im ngl I am REALLY enjoying the salt and gloating in this thread on multiple levels.

[dspNY]

I think this is an outlier. Why is Trump still going to Iowa if he's up 7 and trailing in lots of other places (I think he's ahead there but it's much closer, maybe 2-3 points)

If this poll said 2-3 then it wouldn't seem so off, but Trump up 7 with Biden only at 41% seems off. It's like they are closer to Trump's number but are way under counting Biden.

Yeah, I think Monmouth's 48-47 Trump is much closer to right and Trump wins the state something like 51-48

[DrScholl]

Waiting for the House polls. I'm expecting that they'll have all the Democrats down like 20% in each district (in IA-4 that wouldn't be surprising though).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I feel sick.
It's happening again.

That's it. I'm out of here.

See you all on Tuesday night or Wednesday