IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Hammy]

They should poll other states since the "gold standard" Quinnipiac and PPP are finally thoroughly discredited as being Democratic wishcasts

[BlueSwan]

Do we know much about Selzers methodology here? I remember hearing a podcast about how she did polling of Iowa causes, but I can't imagine that she does the same thing here?

[bilaps]

i am here only to see if wbrocks67 has any comment on unskewing every single poll for 6 months to favor democrats and biden in every single comment or what he would said literally every poll.

[RI]

Do we know much about Selzers methodology here? I remember hearing a podcast about how she did polling of Iowa causes, but I can't imagine that she does the same thing here?

IIRC, Selzer has a very laissez-faire approach to polling: use very little weighing (only age, sex, and congressional district), make few prior assumptions and let the data tell you what it tells you. She doesn't take past voting history into account. She doesn't make efforts to re-sample missed voters.

The only thing somewhat notable is that she records demographics of non-voters as well as voters in order to weigh the entire sample to the overall population using Census data.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Everyone who attacked Selzer after this poll owes her an apology.  Especially LeanTossup, who really went after her.

I'll start:  I was dumb to use the Dem primary screw-up as an attack on Selzer.  It wasn't even her fault that her callers listed Buttigieg incorrectly.  And her leaked results weren't very far off from the actual results.  It was just me clutching at any signal that she was unprofessional or declining so I could discount this outlier poll.

[lfromnj]

Everyone who attacked Selzer after this poll owes her an apology.  Especially LeanTossup, who really went after her.

I'll start:  I was dumb to use the Dem primary screw-up as an attack on Selzer.  It wasn't even her fault that her callers listed Buttigieg incorrectly.  And her leaked results weren't very far off from the actual results.  It was just me clutching at any signal that she was unprofessional or declining so I could discount this outlier poll.

Good on you, eating your crow is important, I was wrong too in certain races (Texas especially and I will eat it)
Thanks for admitting you were wrong unlike a lot of people

[bandg]

This shows why weighting by education won't solve anything. The root problem is that Biden supporters are eager to answer polls, while Trump supporters hate the media and won't answer polls or will lie instead. Of course, this effect varies state by state (and was non-existent for Obama vs Romney). The only way to fix this is to weight by Trump support, but of course that's what you're trying to measure in the first place.

I wonder if one reason Selzer is more successful is that in Iowa specifically there is a higher tendency for Trump supporters to answer a DMR poll honestly because of its reputation. Same but to a lesser extent with Marquette in Wisconsin.

[ultraviolet]

Perhaps we misunderestimated Queen Ann

[Bootes Void]

Ann should poll the Midwest, although polls were very off in Florida and some of the applachians areas

[Astatine]

Everyone who attacked Selzer after this poll owes her an apology.  Especially LeanTossup, who really went after her.

LolTossup is seriously the most laughable predictor this cycle. Even Bitecofer's prediction wasn't as terrible as theirs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's don't need to spend money in IA, FL and TX and MT and OH 2022 since the incumbents are favored to win reelection. They should learn from Harrison, HEGAR, Bollier and Bullocks experience

DeSantis, Rubio, Kemp, Reynolds, Portman, Cruz, and DeWine, are all safe bets for reelection

[Lief 🗽]

I am awaiting a formal, written apology from many of the posters on this forum.

[lfromnj]

I love this thread reached 20 pages and half of it was that hack S-MD avatar saying the poll was junk and asking why are there so many pages?

[lfromnj]

So turns out it was a good Yellow/red flag for the driftless area as it continued to swing right in Iowa and Wisconsin and Illinois. In Minnesota it did swing left a touch though.

[Andy Hine]

Everyone who attacked Selzer after this poll owes her an apology.  Especially LeanTossup, who really went after her.

I'll start:  I was dumb to use the Dem primary screw-up as an attack on Selzer.  It wasn't even her fault that her callers listed Buttigieg incorrectly.  And her leaked results weren't very far off from the actual results.  It was just me clutching at any signal that she was unprofessional or declining so I could discount this outlier poll.

I just thought I.d let you know that I didn't apologize to her.

[BlueSwan]

I am awaiting a formal, written apology from many of the posters on this forum.

Haven't read this sh*tshow of a thread, but wasn't your very first post in this thread literally "
Wow. Trump is going to win the election."?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1322916712468172800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1322916712468172800%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html1322916712468172800

Smth seems off here.....

Yeah... I’m starting to wonder if there was some kind of organized manipulation of this poll by Trump supporters somehow.

LMAO this is getting great, I wonder if you have anymore hidden gems from earlier this year.

[VAR]

Iowa is MAGA country.

Yep.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Iowa is MAGA country.

Yep.

It's safe R in the long term because of trends but the thinking that its Senate race was more in reach than most other competitive seats beyond the core four was correct. It wasn't that bad relative to the national environment, although it will be next time.

[The Free North]

Do we know much about Selzers methodology here? I remember hearing a podcast about how she did polling of Iowa causes, but I can't imagine that she does the same thing here?

IIRC, Selzer has a very laissez-faire approach to polling: use very little weighing (only age, sex, and congressional district), make few prior assumptions and let the data tell you what it tells you. She doesn't take past voting history into account. She doesn't make efforts to re-sample missed voters.

The only thing somewhat notable is that she records demographics of non-voters as well as voters in order to weigh the entire sample to the overall population using Census data.

In other words, a high flexible, non assumptive approach to polling that removes a lot of the educated "guesswork" about what the electorate will look like an instead lets the electorate itself tell you what it will look like.

A priori vs a posteriori perhaps?

[kwabbit]

Do we know much about Selzers methodology here? I remember hearing a podcast about how she did polling of Iowa causes, but I can't imagine that she does the same thing here?

IIRC, Selzer has a very laissez-faire approach to polling: use very little weighing (only age, sex, and congressional district), make few prior assumptions and let the data tell you what it tells you. She doesn't take past voting history into account. She doesn't make efforts to re-sample missed voters.

The only thing somewhat notable is that she records demographics of non-voters as well as voters in order to weigh the entire sample to the overall population using Census data.

In other words, a high flexible, non assumptive approach to polling that removes a lot of the educated "guesswork" about what the electorate will look like an instead lets the electorate itself tell you what it will look like.

A priori vs a posteriori perhaps?

She must have some ingenious sampling technique bc she reaches a representative sample of the electorate without much weighting. She's definitely doing something to reach these Trump voters no one else does.

[morgieb]

Ann, I will never doubt you again.

[VAR]

Queen Ann's  first interview since her 'disaster' 'outlier' poll. 

[pbrower2a]

This one got it right. Donald Trump has shown himself at exploiting (if not solving) mass resentments at what many consider arrogant, obnoxious, aloof "coastal elites".

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

i am here only to see if wbrocks67 has any comment on unskewing every single poll for 6 months to favor democrats and biden in every single comment or what he would said literally every poll.