IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[jamestroll]

Um, the last Selzer poll showed Feenstra leading by only 5, but no one called it an outlier because muh crosstabs.

(I’m not saying that I don’t think this poll is an outlier)

This poll likely is an outliner but the fact that Trump is still going to [narrowly] win Iowa with Biden potentially winning by 9 or 10 nationally says something.

[VAR]

20 pages!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So apparently this was the deleted text:

https://pastebin.com/raw/gYVALf47

I’m REALLY starting to think this poll was compromised. After a screw-up in the primaries too, Selzer is in real danger of losing “gold standard” status for good.

The way to lose the 'gold standard' status is to not publish your outliers. Selzer has done the right thing here even if the poll is way off and should be applauded for it.

This is better than being denied the final Iowa poll (thanks to a particular Buttigieg supporter).

[jamestroll]

yaaaasssss let's make it 25 pages!

[Alben Barkley]

So apparently this was the deleted text:

https://pastebin.com/raw/gYVALf47

I’m REALLY starting to think this poll was compromised. After a screw-up in the primaries too, Selzer is in real danger of losing “gold standard” status for good.

The way to lose the 'gold standard' status is to not publish your outliers. Selzer has done the right thing here even if the poll is way off and should be applauded for it.

This is better than being denied the final Iowa poll (thanks to a particular Buttigieg supporter).

An outlier is one thing. A deliberately manipulated/compromised poll that you failed to catch is another.

[swf541]

So apparently this was the deleted text:

https://pastebin.com/raw/gYVALf47

I’m REALLY starting to think this poll was compromised. After a screw-up in the primaries too, Selzer is in real danger of losing “gold standard” status for good.

The way to lose the 'gold standard' status is to not publish your outliers. Selzer has done the right thing here even if the poll is way off and should be applauded for it.

This is better than being denied the final Iowa poll (thanks to a particular Buttigieg supporter).

An outlier is one thing. A deliberately manipulated/compromised poll that you failed to catch is another.

Pretty much, if Selzer is off in this one their reputation is finished

[Landslide Lyndon]

They badly missed the governor race two years ago. And the Republican caucuses in 2016.
This might be the coup de grace. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So this could just be a coincidence but a Google search does bring up this church in Marion, IA where one of the pastors is listed in his bio as being married to a woman named Megan, (not "Meghan") and that they have two twins, one named "Silas": https://cornerstone-marion.org/leaders

That sort of sounds like the sort of thing people would put together to make up the name of a fake person...

[swf541]

They badly missed the governor race two years ago. And the Republican caucuses in 2016.
This might be the coup de grace. 

Very much so and lets not forget the Dem caucus poll incident, I feel Selzer has run its course in being a solid pollster at this rate

[H. Ross Peron]

So apparently this was the deleted text:

https://pastebin.com/raw/gYVALf47

I’m REALLY starting to think this poll was compromised. After a screw-up in the primaries too, Selzer is in real danger of losing “gold standard” status for good.

That entire passage sounds incredibly contrived.

[forza nocta]

T W E N T Y  P A G E S

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

T W E N T Y  P A G E S

It's like the CoD: Infinite Warfare trailer - we're on the road to 30!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

yaaaasssss let's make it 25 pages!

This thread should be longer. If you agree, empty quote this.

[Storr]

So apparently this was the deleted text:

https://pastebin.com/raw/gYVALf47

I’m REALLY starting to think this poll was compromised. After a screw-up in the primaries too, Selzer is in real danger of losing “gold standard” status for good.

That entire passage sounds incredibly contrived.

Welcome to journalism.

[Blair]

I'm slightly confused- what does the deleted passage mean for the quality of the poll?

[Bootes Void]

[Progressive Pessimist]

A PIG! AWWW! SO CUTE! Yet also weird...

...Sorry I bumped this thread...

[Bootes Void]

A PIG! AWWW! SO CUTE! Yet also weird...

...Sorry I bumped this thread...

its a dog

[Progressive Pessimist]

A PIG! AWWW! SO CUTE! Yet also weird...

...Sorry I bumped this thread...

its a dog

That is not a dog. I have an unhealthy love of pigs. I know one when I see one. Also it's appropriate considering this thread is about Iowa which has many pig farms. Another reason to hate the state!

[Ye We Can]

Late to the 20 page cry party over an Iowa poll but even assuming its accurate its still plenty believable that Biden is doing much better in the upper midwest anyway

[Former President tack50]

How on earth does a single poll make it to 20 pages?

[Landslide Lyndon]

BTW, even if Biden wins I bet you that Selzer will say that this poll was good and it's just that undecideds broke late and massively in one direction, just like they did four years ago.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

20 pages 


You can't let them close the schools, cause this thread proves that Americans has already a large issues with basic math/stats/reasoning.

[charcuterie]

To be fair to Ann Selzer in all of this, a good pollster doesn't hold back their outliers. The fact that she's willing to throw this data out there says a lot about the standards she holds herself too, even if we may be criticizing it tomorrow.

[Gustaf]

I'd imagine a Trump supporter in Iowa would make up a story like that. But how does that imply the poll is somehow unreliable?