CNN: Biden with clear leads in AZ, WI, MI, NC (user search)
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  CNN: Biden with clear leads in AZ, WI, MI, NC (search mode)
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Author Topic: CNN: Biden with clear leads in AZ, WI, MI, NC  (Read 4069 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: October 31, 2020, 04:12:30 PM »

Networks are really still trying to push the horse race narrative. They said "AZ and NC are tight".... 4 and 6 pt leads are not "tight" in states like these.

I've watched some of CBS News in the past few days, and they went over the "battleground map", pegging Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina as tossup states, with Texas as Lean R and Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as Lean D. While I'm sure that the networks have their own motivations for making their projections, I don't think it's wrong for people to still be mindful as we head into Election Day. Fortunately, from the record high turnout figures we are seeing, it looks like we're not going to suffer from the complacency problem.
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Calthrina950
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Posts: 15,936
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2020, 05:00:09 PM »

Networks are really still trying to push the horse race narrative. They said "AZ and NC are tight".... 4 and 6 pt leads are not "tight" in states like these.

I've watched some of CBS News in the past few days, and they went over the "battleground map", pegging Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina as tossup states, with Texas as Lean R and Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as Lean D. While I'm sure that the networks have their own motivations for making their projections, I don't think it's wrong for people to still be mindful as we head into Election Day. Fortunately, from the record high turnout figures we are seeing, it looks like we're not going to suffer from the complacency problem.

Checking their map every week for my aggregate map, their map hasn't changed in forever and is based off of YouGov polling.

I don't understand why they would have that be the case. Watching the CBS News coverage, I got the impression that Biden is in the lead, but that Trump still has a chance to eke it out through the Electoral College. Given that the network was stunned by Trump's 2016 victory (they didn't project him as the winner until he was already giving his victory speech), they may be trying to overcompensate here.
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Calthrina950
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Posts: 15,936
United States


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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2020, 01:22:43 AM »

Networks are really still trying to push the horse race narrative. They said "AZ and NC are tight".... 4 and 6 pt leads are not "tight" in states like these.

I've watched some of CBS News in the past few days, and they went over the "battleground map", pegging Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina as tossup states, with Texas as Lean R and Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as Lean D. While I'm sure that the networks have their own motivations for making their projections, I don't think it's wrong for people to still be mindful as we head into Election Day. Fortunately, from the record high turnout figures we are seeing, it looks like we're not going to suffer from the complacency problem.

CBS' map turned out to be almost exactly on target, and they, along with the other mainstream media outlets, were right to treat this election as being much closer than what was believed on here and elsewhere.
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