Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
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Posts: 12,134
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« on: July 21, 2021, 02:13:00 PM » |
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Depends. Directly preceding an election, people should avoid tossups (replacing them with tilts), but earlier in the cycle a couple of tossups are fine. What isn't fine is when any and all competitive races are rated tossup, and only the obvious ones aren't. Because the point of a prediction is to be specific. I can tell you the outcome of every single senate race in 2022 (which party wins, not the specific winner of the race), except for GA; NC; NV; AZ; NH; WI and PA - all the competitive elections. I'd be sure I was correct about the other ones. But my prediction would still be useless since it would be incomplete and avoid hazarding an even remotely audacious guess, and just stating the obvious (anyone can 'predict' that CA, OR, WA, CO, IL, MD, NY, CT, VT and NY will go blue and that UT, ID, ND, SD, KS, OK, AR, MO, LA, IN, KY, IA, OH, SC, AL and FL will go red - what matters is the residue of states, where the outcome isn't as obvious).
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