Crucial_Waukesha
Rookie
Posts: 21
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« on: February 04, 2021, 04:26:30 PM » |
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I don't agree in general; I think Toss-up is often a more accurate prediction than Tilt D/R, actually.
A 53% or 47% chance of a candidate winning is, from a real-life perspective, basically a coin flip. If it's truly that close (i.e. not because of polling error), then it's being decided on turnout margins or small swings that are difficult to predict or model.
It seems much more reasonable to set the expectation that nobody really knows which way it'll go than to hazard a guess based on a single-digit polling advantage.
Caveat: if you're doing it for fun or as a challenge, then I'd agree that predicting Toss-up seems counterintuitive.
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