Ogre Mage
YaBB God
Posts: 3,500
Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22
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« on: November 19, 2022, 08:59:40 PM » |
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As I see it, a tossup prediction is a prediction the race will be close. For instance, in the 2022 Wisconsin and Nevada Senate races, I predicted Ron Johnson and Catherine Cortez Masto would win but had them as tossups on the confidence map. Both Johnson and Cortez Masto won by 1%, so I consider those predictions to be very accurate.
But in Arizona, I predicted Mark Kelly would win and had it as a tossup. Kelly won the race by 5%. So that prediction was a little off, even though it was technically correct.
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