Are tossups for cowards?
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December 03, 2022, 01:04:37 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Are tossups for cowards?
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Author Topic: Are tossups for cowards?  (Read 8506 times)
Lincoln General Court Representative Christian Man
Christian Man
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« Reply #25 on: September 29, 2021, 09:27:23 PM »

Absolutely not, especially considering Biden only won the E.V. by around 43,000 votes. If those 43,000 voters across Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin switched to Trump, we would not be looking at a President Biden. I think it's important to put tossups to emphasize the close races/states which could determine the outcome of the election.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #26 on: November 10, 2021, 08:16:47 AM »

I usually don't use tossups since I like to put more confidence into my takes, but for my early 2022 predictions I might use them due to the level of uncertainty this far out.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: February 10, 2022, 05:58:13 PM »

"The wisest man knows that he knows nothing" - I forget
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #28 on: November 19, 2022, 08:59:40 PM »

As I see it, a tossup prediction is a prediction the race will be close.  For instance, in the 2022 Wisconsin and Nevada Senate races, I predicted Ron Johnson and Catherine Cortez Masto would win but had them as tossups on the confidence map.  Both Johnson and Cortez Masto won by 1%, so I consider those predictions to be very accurate.

But in Arizona, I predicted Mark Kelly would win and had it as a tossup.  Kelly won the race by 5%.  So that prediction was a little off, even though it was technically correct.
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