Why did Bob Dole win 19% of the black vote in Va and 17% in Ohio in 96

[Bootes Void]

https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/president/pres.return.html

This is from the 96 exit polls. These seem really strange as to why Dole did better there compared to the rest of the country.Historic GOP tradition in those states?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

My guess would be less polarization and record low youth turnout, especially the latter. Clinton was also leading up through Election Day, so a number of Democrats decided to stay home and the final result was a Clinton underperformance.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

My guess is that the reason is the same why Trump supposedly won the youth vote in Minnesota and Iowa in 2016 i.e. random sampling error.

[The Mikado]

The GOP at the time had a theory of why: Jack Kemp, Dole's running mate. The joking version of it at the time was "Jack Kemp has showered with more black men than most Republican politicians have shaken hands with," but in all seriousness, as former Quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, Kemp pretty uniquely for a non-CBC politician came up in a professional environment where many of his colleagues and peers were black and how to have serious professional relationships with them, and that was basically his selling point in Republican politics.

Whether or not Kemp ACTUALLY had any special black appeal is a very difficult question, but the GOP certainly THOUGHT he did.

[Suburbia]

The GOP at the time had a theory of why: Jack Kemp, Dole's running mate. The joking version of it at the time was "Jack Kemp has showered with more black men than most Republican politicians have shaken hands with," but in all seriousness, as former Quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, Kemp pretty uniquely for a non-CBC politician came up in a professional environment where many of his colleagues and peers were black and how to have serious professional relationships with them, and that was basically his selling point in Republican politics.

Whether or not Kemp ACTUALLY had any special black appeal is a very difficult question, but the GOP certainly THOUGHT he did.

This.

Kemp could have won 10%-15% of the black vote against a dud like Gephardt or someone else.

[The Mikado]

The GOP at the time had a theory of why: Jack Kemp, Dole's running mate. The joking version of it at the time was "Jack Kemp has showered with more black men than most Republican politicians have shaken hands with," but in all seriousness, as former Quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, Kemp pretty uniquely for a non-CBC politician came up in a professional environment where many of his colleagues and peers were black and how to have serious professional relationships with them, and that was basically his selling point in Republican politics.

Whether or not Kemp ACTUALLY had any special black appeal is a very difficult question, but the GOP certainly THOUGHT he did.

This.

Kemp could have won 10%-15% of the black vote against a dud like Gephardt or someone else.

I mean, Dole allegedly won 12% of the black vote in 1996 with Kemp on the bottom of the ticket, if you trust exit polls. Personally, I see no way that Clinton could've won the black vote only 84-12 (technically, 1992's 82-11 was worse on margin and so Clinton twice got the lowest black margin since 1976 when Carter won the black vote 85-15...but this can't be true...can it?) and won by 8.5% nationally, but that's the data we have. Kemp's as good a rationale as any.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Dole’s 1996 campaign is the GOP’s worst performance in a presidential election since 1964. Despite this, Dole outperformed Reagan, Bush Sr and every 21st century nominee to date with black voters. My Guess as to why would be the same reason why Ford did relatively well with this demographic, both were congressmen who voted for the 1964 and 1968 Civil Rights Acts and the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Though I’m unsure why he performed better in these specific states, it may very well just be a sampling error.

[lfromnj]

My guess is that the reason is the same why Trump supposedly won the youth vote in Minnesota and Iowa in 2016 i.e. random sampling error.

Trump did do decent on some Iowa college campus precincts though. He got blown out in University of Iowa in Iowa city although some like Iowa state in Ames were a tie in 2016 and that was just college students. Note in Ames the only buildings inside that precinct were dorms themselves which means the electorate there was 100% college students.