PPP Polls: MN Biden +11, TX Biden +2
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  PPP Polls: MN Biden +11, TX Biden +2
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Author Topic: PPP Polls: MN Biden +11, TX Biden +2  (Read 7210 times)
TheLaRocca
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« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2020, 11:20:06 AM »

yeah no lmfao.

Texas is possible tho.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2020, 11:23:03 AM »

PPP was very good in Texas in 2018, nailed the margin.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2020, 11:35:57 AM »

Why’re we still polling MN?
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2020, 12:02:15 PM »

PPP was very good in Texas in 2018, nailed the margin.

Link to poll
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2020, 12:08:43 PM »

Just because PPP did good in Tx in 2018 doesn’t necessarily mean they will do well again, same way Trafalgar won’t necessarily do well in the Midwest again
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2020, 12:19:38 PM »

Just because PPP did good in Tx in 2018 doesn’t necessarily mean they will do well again, same way Trafalgar won’t necessarily do well in the Midwest again

PPP =/= Trafalgar

Also PPP was one of the *few* to get TX correct, so ..
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2020, 01:25:16 PM »

It's a D+13 sample, but the 2016 recalled vote is Clinton +1. Hmm.

Very good point. Tbf, in MN, there were many more Democrats who voted for Trump/didn't vote/voted 3rd party, but I doubt the electorate was D+13 in terms of registration. Also, do note the sample is just voters, not likely voters or registered voters

Trump promised infrastructure spending, and iron miners in northern Minnesota had visions of  huge  spending projects on roads and bridges that devour iron. It turns out that Trump's idea of infrastructure spending was to sweeten deals for privatization  of highways to monopolistic profiteers whose big expenditures would be the installation of toll gantries on what have been freeways. That's not what the iron miners were looking for; they wanted to mine more ore to be spend on rebars for concrete roadways in construction or reconstruction.

...Put hefty tolls on existing highways, and there won't need to be any new construction because the traffic will shrivel. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2020, 01:40:26 PM »

Texas gusher of 38 electoral votes for Biden? Oh, would that be sweet!
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2020, 02:39:44 PM »

Sun Sunbelt GOP
Get off Twitter and Shut Your Mouth!
Gone! Gone with the Wind.
Their Aint nobody looking back again!

Covid Surging, Economy in the Ditch
Everyone getting Covid and we'll never get rich.
Daddy would have never voted Democrat
But they finally got a rich man to vote like that

Singing Sun Sunbelt GOP
Get off Twitter and Shut Your Mouth!
Gone! Gone with the Wind!
Their Aint nobody looking back again!

Somebody told us Covid cases fell
That we would be fine, we couldn't tell.   
Jobs were down and Covid was high
But Mr. Joe Biden gonna save us all!



This is a creative expression representing a decent number of Texas suburbanites, adapted from Alabama's Song of the South, which was itself a celebration of the New Deal in the South.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2020, 03:48:38 PM »


Unfortunately their last one was from September, but they nailed the margin.

https://www.protectourcare.org/new-poll-texas-senate-race/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2020, 03:51:00 PM »


What's most interesting there is that that was a Protect Our Care poll too, which many people here seem to think are "D internals" and yet it still nailed the margin.

I really wish Civiqs was polling TX too. They nailed 2018 as well.
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Kempros
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« Reply #36 on: November 04, 2020, 01:41:05 AM »

So. Yea.
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iceman
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« Reply #37 on: November 08, 2020, 05:42:27 PM »

PPP is just a democratic hack poll that should be shamed out of business. Yet, Nate Silver is madly infatuated with this firm.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #38 on: November 08, 2020, 05:47:33 PM »

PPP is just a democratic hack poll that should be shamed out of business. Yet, Nate Silver is madly infatuated with this firm.

My favorite PPP poll of the cycle had Fitzpatrick losing by 1. He won by 13. Although a lot of House polls were way off.
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Buzz
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« Reply #39 on: November 08, 2020, 06:12:27 PM »

Abolish PPP
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #40 on: November 18, 2020, 02:35:00 PM »


Buzz was right, he got 1 recommendation. But 11 people recommended an insulated personal attack anyway because it makes themselves feel good I guess.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #41 on: November 18, 2020, 02:39:17 PM »


Strong evidence here that PPP is either cooking their books on that recalled vote statistic or are getting a wildly unrepresentative sample that massively overstates the Trump/Biden switcher. The real electorate of Texas swung 3 points Democratic this election, but according to PPP it was going to be a 10 point swing. I get recalled vote is not super reliable, but I don't know how in the hell anyone can make sense of that.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #42 on: November 23, 2020, 12:47:15 PM »

PPP is just a democratic hack poll that should be shamed out of business. Yet, Nate Silver is madly infatuated with this firm.

My favorite PPP poll of the cycle had Fitzpatrick losing by 1. He won by 13. Although a lot of House polls were way off.


PPP took over from Research 2000 polls when they got banned in 2010, that's all they are


TX was always in the Trump camp, HEGAR got Blanched like Windy Davis and Valdez, by 10
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PoliticsWatcher1
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« Reply #43 on: December 07, 2020, 02:36:51 PM »


Buzz was right, he got 1 recommendation. But 11 people recommended an insulated personal attack anyway because it makes themselves feel good I guess.
He was right, and I applaud him for it! I do regret my tone, but it is good for nobody to be too cocky whether they end up being right or wrong.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #44 on: December 07, 2020, 03:51:59 PM »


Strong evidence here that PPP is either cooking their books on that recalled vote statistic or are getting a wildly unrepresentative sample that massively overstates the Trump/Biden switcher. The real electorate of Texas swung 3 points Democratic this election, but according to PPP it was going to be a 10 point swing. I get recalled vote is not super reliable, but I don't know how in the hell anyone can make sense of that.

I think that most polls were way oversampling Trump-Biden voters and that was a major source of the polling error. There is no way to solve it by weighting. A pollster can be as thorough as possible, but if for every possible demographic characteristic a person is disproportionately likely to vote for Biden than reality then there is nothing to be done. Pollsters were probably thinking, well we got the right number of Republicans, right number of non-college educated voters so we're good.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #45 on: December 17, 2020, 08:07:13 PM »

To be honest, I did feel like PPP and Quinnipiac polls felt off, especially for Southern states in Quinnipiac's case. PPP I attribute to having a D-bias, but Quinnipiac used to be really respectable. If we go back and look at the cross-tabs, do folks have any idea of where they went wrong? I think we all have a pretty good idea of how the final electorate broke down now so the cross tab comparison could be illuminating.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #46 on: December 18, 2020, 02:02:31 AM »

To be honest, I did feel like PPP and Quinnipiac polls felt off, especially for Southern states in Quinnipiac's case. PPP I attribute to having a D-bias, but Quinnipiac used to be really respectable. If we go back and look at the cross-tabs, do folks have any idea of where they went wrong? I think we all have a pretty good idea of how the final electorate broke down now so the cross tab comparison could be illuminating.

I didn't think PPP felt truly questionable (regardless of whether they were accurate or not) until after the Selzer Iowa poll came out and PPP almost immediately released another poll that had Biden ahead, which they said they conducted due to popular demand, or something along those lines. It seemed really questionable to me and after that I don't think they should be taken seriously again until they prove themselves reliable.
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