PA - Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Biden +5

[VAR]

Oct 23-28, 419 LV, MoE: 5.5%

Changes with Oct 13-20.

Biden 49% (-2)
Trump 44% (n/c)
Neither/other 4% (+2)
Not sure 2% (-2)

GCB: 46-42 Democratic

Trump approval: 45/49 (-4)

Favorabilities:
Trump - 41/52 (-11)
Biden - 38/45 (-7)

https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/FINAL_PA_ELEC2020_LATE_OCT_REPORT%20(1)%20(1).pdf

[Woody]

Tilt R.

[Tender Branson]

Not good.

This looks more and more like TN 2000.

[Skye]

Tilt R.

Not good.

This looks more and more like TN 2000.

I sometimes have to wonder if I'm seeing the same numbers others are seeing.

[Buzz]

Philly riots impact



/s



Maybe

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ooooo spoookkkkyyyy

(Seriously though: Happy Halloween, y'all.) 

[forza nocta]

Its interesting that their PA polls have had Biden with such low favorability compared to other polls in PA/nationally

[South Dakota Democrat]

Tilt R.

What a stupid prediction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not good.

This looks more and more like TN 2000.

QU polled PA, OH and FL for Biden, you as a moderator shouldn't forget that, it's in the poll database

IA Senate poll was off they had Ernst winning and www.electionprojection.com has Ernst losing

[wbrocks67]

Its interesting that their PA polls have had Biden with such low favorability compared to other polls in PA/nationally

yeah, well this also has Trump's approval at only -4, 45/49, which .... isn't happening.

Like Wasserman says, the district polls are telling a different story than many of the statewide PA pollsters. Though generally most of the higher quality stuff has had PA at 7/8, so this is on the low end.

[BudgieForce]

I highly doubt Biden's favorable numbers went from even to -7 in a week. Probably a more conservative sample.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322527214592794626

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322527214592794626

The average for the medium/high quality has been +7. And it's been +7/8 for a while now.

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden will win PA--probably by a smaller margin than MI or WI because Trump has targeted PA as his last resort. 

I expect this to be the correct margin after all the voter suppression tactics that Trump and crew have tried to implement.

[Thomas D]

5 points is a good lead.  52-47 would be better than Obama beat Romney by nationally.

[compucomp]

Tilt R.

[CellarDoor]

Incumbent President at 44%.  Not a good sign for him.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not good.

This looks more and more like TN 2000.

First off, the circumstances that caused TN to go red in 2000 are very different than the circumstances that would cause PA to go red in 2020. Also; not everything is going to be a redux. What would prevent this from being a PA 2012, where Obama led by only 7% or so and ended up winning by over 10%?

[Rand]

Biden wins PA in the Philadelphia suburbs alone, notwithstanding small gains in the rest of the state that cut into Trump’s pathetic 44,000 vote margin.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Not good.

This looks more and more like TN 2000.

First off, the circumstances that caused TN to go red in 2000 are very different than the circumstances that would cause PA to go red in 2020. Also; not everything is going to be a redux. What would prevent this from being a PA 2012, where Obama led by only 7% or so and ended up winning by over 10%?

I assume you mean 2008. Obama won PA by just over 5% in 2012.

As for the TN comparison, TN went to Bush by just over 4% while he lost the PV by about half a point. While Trump winning it is unlikely, pulling off a similar relationship to the pv is possible in some scenarios.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ecosse_48nj/status/1322548504334635009

[Orser67]

Imagine thinking that a poll showing your candidate down by five in the likely tipping point state on the eve of the election is great news.

[gf20202]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322527214592794626

The average for the medium/high quality has been +7. And it's been +7/8 for a while now.

I wonder if Nate is speaking with the knowledge of his own PA poll out tomorrow. I am assuming Biden lead will be below seven in it.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322527214592794626

The average for the medium/high quality has been +7. And it's been +7/8 for a while now.

I wonder if Nate is speaking with the knowledge of his own PA poll out tomorrow. I am assuming Biden lead will be below seven in it.

Probably not. I think he's referring to this poll and Quinnipiac and Fox News poll that all show a small amount of tightening. Nate usually doesn't drop hints outside of party I.D numbers.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322527214592794626

Please don’t do this to me.