NH - Saint Anselm College: Shaheen +15 | Pappas +5 | Kuster +15

[VAR]

Oct 23-26, 1018 LV, MoE: 3.1%

Changes with Oct 1-4 poll.

SEN
Shaheen (D-inc) 54% (+1)
Messner (R) 39% (+1)
O’Donnell (L) 2% (-1)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Unsure 5% (+1)

Favorabilities:
Shaheen - 56/41 (+15)
Messner - 37/43 (-6)

NH-01 - MoE: 4.1%
Pappas (D-inc) 49% (n/c)
Mowers (R) 44% (+3)
Dumont (L) 1% (-1)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Unsure 5% (-2)

Favorabilities:
Pappas - 47/38 (+9)
Mowers - 35/29 (+6)

NH-02 - MoE: 4.6%
Kuster (D-inc) 54% (+2)
Negron (R) 39% (+1)
Olding (L) 3% (-1)
Someone else 1% (-1)
Unsure 3% (-2)

Favorabilities:
Kuster - 49/41 (+8)
Negron - 27/28 (-1)

Maggie Hassan fav: 50/43 (+7)

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/saintanselmlateoctoberpoll-1604003692.pdf

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's more like it, though it's still a decline for Pappas. Earlier polling this year suggested that he would win by more than Kuster, right?

[User441]

Remember when people thought this seat would be competitive?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Geez lots of NH polls today. NH-Sen is safe D, though not titanium.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by St. Anselm College on 2020-10-26

Summary: D: 54%, R: 39%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Landslide Lyndon]

That's more like it, though it's still a decline for Pappas. Earlier polling this year suggested that he would win by more than Kuster, right?

It's an Obama/Trump district. If Republicans actually had a decent candidate, this would have been a very competitive race.

[free my dawg]

That's more like it, though it's still a decline for Pappas. Earlier polling this year suggested that he would win by more than Kuster, right?

It's an Obama/Trump district. If Republicans actually had a decent candidate, this would have been a very competitive race.

They don't really have one. Pappas is very strong in Manchester, where most of the GOP bench got wiped out. The only one who remains in politics is pushing 70 and lost his mayoral run in 2017. Boutin is gone and Sanborn lost the primary in disgrace.

There's really not much of a bench in NH-1. I guess there's Sharon Carson and Regina Birdsell but I don't even think they'd make it "very competitive".

[MT Treasurer]

Maggie Hassan fav: 50/43 (+7)

Favorabilities:
Sununu - 67/31 (+36)

I think people (not just Cillizza, but most observers) are going to be very surprised by how vulnerable Hassan will turn out to be in 2022. Yes, it’s early and obviously Sununu's popularity will decline to some extent during a Senate campaign, but it’s hard to see her pulling off another win in a Biden midterm if he runs (and he’s not the only Republican who would make the race competitive).

Many act like this will be a Tossup at best for Republicans (and even then closer to Tilt/Lean D), but I don’t think this one is guaranteed to be all that close and/or competitive, honestly. Democrats might have a better chance of holding/flipping GA and picking up PA.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's more like it, though it's still a decline for Pappas. Earlier polling this year suggested that he would win by more than Kuster, right?

It's an Obama/Trump district. If Republicans actually had a decent candidate, this would have been a very competitive race.

It's one of those districts that is trending sharply away from Republicans though, or at least seemed that way.

[Mr.Phips]

Maggie Hassan fav: 50/43 (+7)

Favorabilities:
Sununu - 67/31 (+36)

I think people (not just Cillizza, but most observers) are going to be very surprised by how vulnerable Hassan will turn out to be in 2022. Yes, it’s early and obviously Sununu's popularity will decline to some extent during a Senate campaign, but it’s hard to see her pulling off another win in a Biden midterm if he runs (and he’s not the only Republican who would make the race competitive).

Many act like this will be a Tossup at best for Republicans (and even then closer to Tilt/Lean D), but I don’t think this one is guaranteed to be all that close and/or competitive, honestly. Democrats might have a better chance of holding/flipping GA and picking up PA.

It will definitely be close and competitive.

[Figueira]

Angry rural Birkenstock Belt women>angry exurban Boston women!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Referring back to a post from me on NH-01 (meant to show the unusual voting pattern of the district:

Beginning with the re-election of incumbent Carolyn Shea-Porter (D) in the 2010 midterms and ending with the election of Chris Pappas in the 2018 midterms, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District alternated between the same two candidates four times.  Not surprisingly, NH-01 (R+2) is considered to be one of the most competitive districts in the nation.  This was a Bush-Bush-Obama-Obama-Trump district.

2003-07: Jeb Bradley (R)
2007-11: Carolyn Shea-Porter (D)
2011-13: Frank Giunta (R)
2013-15: Carolyn Shea-Porter (D)
2015-17: Frank Giunta (R)
2017-19: Carolyn Shea-Porter (D) - Retired.
2019-??: Chris Pappas (D)

That's five party flips, four between the same two candidates.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Republicans have been attacking Pappas for dating a former lobbyist, could that be sticking?  I thought it’d be a nothing-burger, but maybe that hurt Pappas a little.  I don’t know why else his numbers would’ve declined, maybe Sawx can shed some light.  Pappas will still win though.

[MT Treasurer]

It will definitely be close and competitive.

If the extremely popular governor with considerable crossover appeal can’t beat a fairly mediocre incumbent with average approval numbers in a state which is supposedly very ‘elastic’ and slightly more R than the nation as a whole with the wind at his back, it’ll be time to bury the notion that this is still a winnable state for Republicans. Maybe you could explain away Brown's and Ayotte's losses, but a party doesn’t lose three top-tier/seriously contested races in a row with a favorable environment and solid candidates in each of them unless the state isn’t actually competitive.

Similar story in IA if Ernst and Trump both win this year.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It will definitely be close and competitive.

If the extremely popular governor with considerable crossover appeal can’t beat a fairly mediocre incumbent with average approval numbers in a state which is supposedly very ‘elastic’ and slightly more R than the nation as a whole with the wind at his back, it’ll be time to bury the notion that this is still a winnable state for Republicans. Maybe you could explain away Brown's and Ayotte's losses, but a party doesn’t lose three top-tier/seriously contested races in a row with a favorable environment and solid candidates in each of them unless the state isn’t actually competitive.

Similar story in IA if Ernst and Trump both win this year.

Greenfield is not a Sununu-tier candidate.