MN -- PPP: Smith +9

[gf20202]

Tina Smith 51%
Jason Lewis 42%
Not sure 6%

Source: https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/MinnesotaResultsOctober2020.pdf

Presidential is Biden +11

[Hassan 2022]

Smith was never in jeopardy. Safe D.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Smith seems to be running about even with Biden at best. Likely D, but she better be happy she's not up in an off year. She won by 10% in a an election  with a simillar national environment against an opponent of simillar quality, so I struggle to see how she loses this race.

[Skye]

Wait they didn't poll the Texas Senate race?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wait they didn't poll the Texas Senate race?

Maybe they did, and they just didn't like the results

[VAR]

Independents: 50-42 Lewis (46-44 Biden)

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe in terms of winning chance, Likely D with the margin. But for some reason Smith isn't as well liked as Klobuchar.

[Hope For A New Era]

Same as Peters. Saved by the national environment.

[Calthrina950]

Safe in terms of winning chance, Likely D with the margin. But for some reason Smith isn't as well liked as Klobuchar.

No other Democrat in Minnesota seems to be as well liked as Klobuchar. Tim Walz won by roughly the same margin as Smith in 2018, and Keith Ellison of course ran behind them. Klobuchar seems to be the only Democrat in recent years who has run substantially ahead of the state's partisan baseline.

At any rate, this race is Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean. I agree that Smith would be in jeopardy if this were a Biden midterm.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Safe in terms of winning chance, Likely D with the margin. But for some reason Smith isn't as well liked as Klobuchar.

Smith hasn't been around as long as Klobuchar. She's literally only been a senator for 2 years.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe in terms of winning chance, Likely D with the margin. But for some reason Smith isn't as well liked as Klobuchar.

No other Democrat in Minnesota seems to be as well liked as Klobuchar. Tim Walz won by roughly the same margin as Smith in 2018, and Keith Ellison of course ran behind them. Klobuchar seems to be the only Democrat in recent years who has run substantially ahead of the state's partisan baseline.

At any rate, this race is Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean. I agree that Smith would be in jeopardy if this were a Biden midterm.

I'm not so sure a Biden midterm will be like 2010 or 2014. Could very well be closer to 1998. But in this case, it would come down to the GOP challenger. We will see in 2026 in case of a Dem prez, say Biden is reelected or Kamala Harris takes over after the 2024 election. If current demographic trends continue, this will be a tight race that may very well go in the GOP's direction.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe in terms of winning chance, Likely D with the margin. But for some reason Smith isn't as well liked as Klobuchar.

Smith hasn't been around as long as Klobuchar. She's literally only been a senator for 2 years.

Yup, but she was Lt. Gov. since 2011 before. She isn't a total newcomer in MN politics. But I agree it plays a role.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Safe in terms of winning chance, Likely D with the margin. But for some reason Smith isn't as well liked as Klobuchar.

Smith hasn't been around as long as Klobuchar. She's literally only been a senator for 2 years.

Yup, but she was Lt. Gov. since 2011 before. She isn't a total newcomer in MN politics. But I agree it plays a role.

Frankly, most people prolly don't even know who their Lt governor is.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Oct 29-30
770 voters
Changes with Sep 2-4

Tina Smith 51% (+2)
Jason Lewis 42% (+1)
Not sure 6% (-1)

"Someone else" previously with 3%

Source: https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/MinnesotaResultsOctober2020.pdf

Presidential is Biden +11

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Minnesota Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-30

Summary: D: 51%, R: 42%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details