WY - University of Wyoming: Trump +28

[NOVA Green]

Maybe my dream of Cheyenne flipping and voting DEM for the first time since 1964 (?) is not just idle fantasy?   

[NOVA Green]

Biden will definitely flip Albany County with these kinds of numbers, and I expect him to win Teton County with over 60% of the vote, like Obama did in 2008.

I have to wonder about Laramie County. If anywhere in Wyoming is going to make a big political jump this year, it would be there.

Trump will still win Laramie County, but it's possible that he falls under 60% there this time.

Yes--- Laramie County is pretty def not flipping, but margins could shift dramatically depending upon what happens in Cheyenne.

To quote from a post I made about (3) Months back

Bismarck, Pierre, Jefferson City, and Cheyenne. I think Biden flips Oklahoma City and Carson City.

I actually wondered about Cheyenne offhand tonight before reading this thread. In 2008 McCain beat Obama in Laramie County by 20 points. However, it made me wonder how much of that margin came from the presumably Uber Republican suburbs and other portions outside Cheyenne proper, which I assume is the core of Democratic voting strength there.

I mention this because I'm currently guessing 2008 will be a much closer model of this year's election results than 2016, albeit with some differing trends.

Just checked and, IF voting trends switched back to 2008 levels in Laramie County, and IF That Swing was uniform for the city of Cheyenne, Trump would win by about seven points. fwiw.

EDIT: I just realized that although Laramie County had less than two and a half percent of the vote go to third parties in 2008, the city of Cheyenne and 2016 had a whopping 12% third party vote (!). Just about every poll across the country has shown a complete collapse of third-party support for this election. Partisanship aside, tons of people couldn't stomach the idea of Hillary Clinton, and the general consensus was Trump was going to lose anyway. Now after 4 years of trump, those third party voters seem to be overwhelmingly gravitating towards Biden. If you add that factor into vote totals, Biden could very conceivably pick up enough 2016 third party voters to overcome that last 7% difference, again, making the grand assumption that Trends would remain consistent.

So Cheyenne has always had a weird fascination in my mind (as well as Southern Wyoming) since the 1980s, most likely because of at least (30) trips through town in cross-country drives between the mid '80s and mid '90s, combined with a Step-Mother who grew up in Wyoming.

The '88 PRES Election results indicated strong strength for Dukakis within large swathes of Southern Wyoming (Granted Bentsen as VP on the ticket might have helped out in the Oil Patch)...

Unfortunately, I don't believe that I have a collection of Wyoming Precinct results in my collection from '88 and '92...

Still the *Cities* of the Southern Belt of Wyoming actually have a much stronger and ancestral DEM tradition than one might imagine...

So I took the liberty of trying to look at the historical election results from Cheyenne assuming that precinct concepts match City wards conceptually:

1996:

Bill Clinton (D):   10,992    (45.1%)
Bob Dole   (R):    11,485    (47.2%)      +2.1% PUB
TOTAL:               24,353

2000:

Al Gore        (D):         9,122      (37.0%)
George Bush (R):        14,391     (58.3%)       +21.3% PUB
TOTAL:                       24,667

2004:

John Kerry        (D):     9,609       (35.8%)
George W. Bush (R):    16,537      (61.6%)     +25.8% PUB
TOTAL:                        26,847

2008:

Barack Obama (D):     11,902     (43.2%)
John McCain  (R):       14,964     (54.3%)       +11.1% PUB
TOTAL:                       27,552

2012:

Barack Obama (D):      10,563     (41.2%)
Mitt Romney (R):          14.359    (56.0%)       +14.8% PUB
TOTAL:                        25,650

2016:

HRC: 8,853    (33.1%)
DJT: 14,687   (54.9%)     +21.8% Trump      

Considering all of the above, I'm still a bit skeptical that Cheyenne could flip in 2020...

It's possible that you might get a bit of an influx of DEM leaning voters from places such as Fort Collins or metro Denver moving in.... there is a growing Latino population (although likely not a huge overall chunk of the electorate). Sure, a chunk of the Johnson '16 voters might be younger voters predisposed to vote DEM...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386004.msg7496377#msg7496377