IA-Quinnipiac: Ernst +2
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  IA-Quinnipiac: Ernst +2
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Author Topic: IA-Quinnipiac: Ernst +2  (Read 3728 times)
TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #50 on: October 29, 2020, 03:23:38 PM »

Sabato clowned this race up, didn’t they
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DrScholl
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« Reply #51 on: October 29, 2020, 03:26:44 PM »


First off she was not an incumbent then and second she had varying leads across various polls not scattered ones. If anything she is in Braley's position.
That doesn't detract from the fact that republicans have been underestimated in Iowa polling for the 3 distinct election cycles..

Of course, that may change this year.

There is a difference in between underperforming on margins and outright defying polls. Only Reynolds outperformed the average and there weren't that many polls in it. Ernst has trailed more than she has led and that says a lot.
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VAR
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« Reply #52 on: October 29, 2020, 03:38:30 PM »

DrScholl literally expected Braley to win in 2014...

If you registered here in 2020 how would you know that? Seems a little suspicious that a "new poster" would know what I supposedly posted years ago. You want to explain yourself?

I was looking at poll threads from older election cycles.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #53 on: October 29, 2020, 04:12:59 PM »

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

You tell ’em, DrScholl -- pretty sad that people are letting their personal feelings about Ernst interfere with their sound judgement, no? My family and I literally wouldn’t have voted in this election if it wasn’t for Ernst completely embarrassing our wonderful state, and words cannot describe how off the charts anti-Ernst enthusiasm is in Iowa.

I went to the supermarket an hour ago to gauge how the less fortunate feel about her, and the response was the same no matter who I talked to: The wigs were awful enough, embracing a wild conspiracy theory was pathetic, not knowing the price of soybeans was infuriating, but unskewing the polls? Yeah, that was the final straw. We just can’t take it any more. Soon after, the whole store erupted in "VOTE JONI OUT!" chants, and even the Trump supporters like me participated in it at the top of our lungs. I might be voting Republican for President this time, but I want my leaders to represent sincerity, empathy, and intellectualism, so my vote for Senate goes to Theresa Greenfield. It’s time to end this six-year-long nightmare once and for all.

Joni is gone!
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WD
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« Reply #54 on: October 29, 2020, 04:16:46 PM »

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

You tell ’em, DrScholl -- pretty sad that people are letting their personal feelings about Ernst interfere with their sound judgement, no? My family and I literally wouldn’t have voted in this election if it wasn’t for Ernst completely embarrassing our wonderful state, and words cannot describe how off the charts anti-Ernst enthusiasm is in Iowa.

I went to the supermarket an hour ago to gauge how the less fortunate feel about her, and the response was the same no matter who I talked to: The wigs were awful enough, embracing a wild conspiracy theory was pathetic, not knowing the price of soybeans was infuriating, but unskewing the polls? Yeah, that was the final straw. We just can’t take it any more. Soon after, the whole store erupted in "VOTE JONI OUT!" chants, and even the Trump supporters like me participated in it at the top of our lungs. I might be voting Republican for President this time, but I want my leaders to represent sincerity, empathy, and intellectualism, so my vote for Senate goes to Theresa Greenfield. It’s time to end this six-year-long nightmare once and for all.

Joni is gone!

Glad to get a perspective from an elastic Iowan swing voter. Tell us, how much will Greenfield win by? Is it looking more like 15 points or 25 points?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #55 on: October 29, 2020, 04:25:32 PM »

absolutely cannot wait for Greenfield to win so people in this thread look ridiculous bc Ernst was +1 in a few polls
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Xing
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« Reply #56 on: October 29, 2020, 04:34:55 PM »

I always admit it when I'm wrong about a race (I ate plenty of crow when Beshear won), and I'll admit I was wrong about this race if Greenfield wins (though I'm not saying she can't, I don't think anyone is.) I hope the same goes for people assuming that IA polling will be spot on and that Greenfield will win.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #57 on: October 29, 2020, 04:38:34 PM »

Yikes. Yeah this race is gone.

Literally Montana might decide the Senate. Aka it’s not happening
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #58 on: October 29, 2020, 04:41:09 PM »

I always admit it when I'm wrong about a race (I ate plenty of crow when Beshear won), and I'll admit I was wrong about this race if Greenfield wins (though I'm not saying she can't, I don't think anyone is.) I hope the same goes for people assuming that IA polling will be spot on and that Greenfield will win.

I think the race is pretty much Tilt D and I feel like the data reflects that. Greenfield's average is still about +3/4, so she would need another IA-style miss to lose IMO. But that's not assured.
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #59 on: October 29, 2020, 05:01:19 PM »

Never trust religious white people. (who aren't from New England)
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #60 on: October 29, 2020, 05:13:27 PM »

I always admit it when I'm wrong about a race (I ate plenty of crow when Beshear won), and I'll admit I was wrong about this race if Greenfield wins (though I'm not saying she can't, I don't think anyone is.) I hope the same goes for people assuming that IA polling will be spot on and that Greenfield will win.

I still say Tilt D, but I’ll be the first to admit if I turn out to have been wrong.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #61 on: October 29, 2020, 05:22:43 PM »

Three pages of discussion when all that needs to be said is: “Wait for Selzer.”
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
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« Reply #62 on: October 29, 2020, 05:28:26 PM »

Iowa always comes home. 51 seats for the Dems feels like the most likely scenario right now.
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Ljube
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« Reply #63 on: October 29, 2020, 06:08:02 PM »

Quinnipiac is a bad pollster.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #64 on: October 29, 2020, 06:15:21 PM »

I really hope that Quinnipiac sucks at polling Iowa as much as it sucks at polling Florida.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #65 on: October 29, 2020, 09:11:47 PM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2020-10-27

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #66 on: October 30, 2020, 08:36:59 AM »

Never trust religious white people. (who aren't from New England)

Iowa is pretty much average (nationally speaking) for religiosity, though.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #67 on: October 30, 2020, 09:19:40 AM »

Ernst isn't winning this race, QU is the only pollster showing Ernst ahead www.electionprojection.com has Ernst losing
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SN2903
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« Reply #68 on: October 30, 2020, 10:29:53 AM »

Likely R

Ernst wins by 4
Trump wins by 6
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #69 on: October 30, 2020, 12:15:25 PM »

Likely R

Ernst wins by 4
Trump wins by 6

Tell Senator Tom Harkin hi when he was Senator from IA for 3 terms before Ernst and Chet Culver was Gov during the 2080s as wkk

This is the only poll that has had Ernst leadung
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GALeftist
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« Reply #70 on: October 30, 2020, 01:22:48 PM »

Likely R

Ernst wins by 4
Trump wins by 6

Tell Senator Tom Harkin hi when he was Senator from IA for 3 terms before Ernst and Chet Culver was Gov during the 2080s as wkk

This is the only poll that has had Ernst leadung

Drag him king
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #71 on: October 30, 2020, 01:34:37 PM »

Likely R

Ernst wins by 4
Trump wins by 6

Tell Senator Tom Harkin hi when he was Senator from IA for 3 terms before Ernst and Chet Culver was Gov during the 2080s as wkk

This is the only poll that has had Ernst leadung
Emerson and NYT Siena also has Ernst ahead.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #72 on: October 30, 2020, 01:59:09 PM »

Likely R

Ernst wins by 4
Trump wins by 6

Tell Senator Tom Harkin hi when he was Senator from IA for 3 terms before Ernst and Chet Culver was Gov during the 2080s as wkk

This is the only poll that has had Ernst leadung
Emerson and NYT Siena also has Ernst ahead.

Rs aren't winning all the remaining Tossups of AK, GA, IA KS, MT,  SC  and TX and Trump isn't at 50 percent approvals

Bullocks, Gross, HEGAR, Greenfield, Harrison have all outraised Daines, Graham, Ernst and Cornyn and Sullivan is on 3 pts ahead of Griss. Bullock is ahead of Daines by 1

That's why www.electionprojection.com has Ernst losing
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