NBC/Marist NC: Biden +6 (user search)
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  NBC/Marist NC: Biden +6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NBC/Marist NC: Biden +6  (Read 7330 times)
Pollster
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« on: October 30, 2020, 12:12:30 PM »


Marist's final polls had McCaskill at 47% (she got 46%) and Donnelly at 45% (he got 45%).
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Pollster
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2020, 12:57:32 PM »


Marist's final polls had McCaskill at 47% (she got 46%) and Donnelly at 45% (he got 45%).
No.  they had Mccaskill at 50 and Donnelly at 48.

They most certainly did not:

Indiana they had Donnelly 45, Braun 42, Brenton 7, Other 1, Undecided 5
Missouri they had McCaskill 47, Hawley 44, Campbell 3, Crain 2, Other 1, Undecided 3

Republicans in both appeared to benefit from third parties underperforming their polling (as they almost always do) and winning over most undecideds (common in safe states for the dominant party).
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Pollster
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Posts: 3,758


« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2020, 01:00:49 PM »


Marist's final polls had McCaskill at 47% (she got 46%) and Donnelly at 45% (he got 45%).

Quote deleted by moderator

They were still wildly off margin wise. Also, if a Candidate gets a lower share of the vote than your polls show (like with McCaskill) then theirs something wrong with your polls.

Margins are close to meaningless in polling, and a 1% over/underperformance is statistically insignificant unless you have a margin of error of less than 0.5% thanks to rounding, which you don't achieve until you have a sample size of ~13,000.
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