ME-SurveyUSA: Biden +13, +3 in ME-02
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  ME-SurveyUSA: Biden +13, +3 in ME-02
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Author Topic: ME-SurveyUSA: Biden +13, +3 in ME-02  (Read 1589 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 29, 2020, 05:32:21 AM »
« edited: October 29, 2020, 07:23:32 AM by VARepublican »

Biden +13 statewide

ME-02
Biden 49%
Trump 46%

ME-02 RCV (Biden +3 pre-rounding):
Biden 51%
Trump 49%

Gideon leads 51-49 statewide.

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/10/29/politics/sara-gideon-susan-collins-nearly-tied-in-poll-finding-ranked-choice-voting-helps-democrats/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2020, 05:34:48 AM »

This seems on point, but SurveyUSA has been kind of junk this entire cycle.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2020, 05:37:28 AM »

Biden +13 Mainewide.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2020, 05:39:25 AM »

A lot of ME-02 resembles certain parts of upstate NY State.

Still, Obama '08/'12 French Canadian / Canadian & Irish Catholic Catholic voters are coming home to Biden in 2020.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2020, 05:54:37 AM »

A lot of ME-02 resembles certain parts of upstate NY State.

Still, Obama '08/'12 French Canadian / Canadian & Irish Catholic Catholic voters are coming home to Biden in 2020.

I'm still convinced that him being an older white-man has to do with naturally winning back at least SOME soft 2016 non-voters/third-party voters that would have normally inclined towards supporting the Democratic candidate. 
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2020, 07:15:33 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2020, 09:44:03 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

For FairVote
October 23-27

Statewide
1007 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

First Round: Biden +13%
Biden 53%
Trump 40%
Hawkins 2%
Jorgensen 2%
De La Fuente 1%
Undecided 2%

With RCV (only using the first 3 choices): Biden +13%
Biden 55%
Trump 42%
No 2nd/3rd choice 1%
Undecided 2%

ME-01
498 likely voters

First Round: Biden +14%
Biden 59%
Trump 35%
Hawkins 2%
Jorgensen 2%
De La Fuente 1%
Undecided 2%

With RCV (only using the first 3 choices): Biden +14%
Biden 61%
Trump 36%
No 2nd/3rd choice 1%
Undecided 2%

ME-02
509 likely voters

First Round: Biden +3%
Biden 48%
Trump 45%
Hawkins 2%
Jorgensen 2%
De La Fuente 1%
Undecided 2%

With RCV
Biden 51%
Trump 49%
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Panda Express
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2020, 07:20:41 AM »

Can we make ME-02 more Dem in redistricting?
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US Medieval Italy Crowned Republic Era
Nathan
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2020, 07:23:08 AM »

Can we make ME-02 more Dem in redistricting?

It's definitely possible. The issue with it is that the current setup of the Maine districts works really well for CoI purposes.
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AGA
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2020, 01:38:31 PM »

Can we make ME-02 more Dem in redistricting?

They might as well switch to a winner-take-all system at that point.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2020, 08:06:15 PM »

New Poll: Maine President by Survey USA on 2020-10-27

Summary: D: 53%, R: 40%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2020, 02:07:35 AM »

A lot of ME-02 resembles certain parts of upstate NY State.

Still, Obama '08/'12 French Canadian / Canadian & Irish Catholic Catholic voters are coming home to Biden in 2020.

I'm still convinced that him being an older white-man has to do with naturally winning back at least SOME soft 2016 non-voters/third-party voters that would have normally inclined towards supporting the Democratic candidate. 

Naturally it would be interesting to look at the Gender Gap comparison in ME CD-02 between '08 / '12 /'16 as well as in '20 (As well as some of the few places in America which might be roughly similar)

It *could* be that these swings back DEM are equal by Gender, but at some level I suspect that White Male voters in Northern Maine are even swingier (is that an actual word?), than Female Voters, who are driving much of the national historical Gender Gap numbers in many other communities from the suburbs to the "WWC diners".

I suspect you may well be correct in that when it comes to age:

1.) Something like 42% of the Total POP is 50+ Years in an election where COVID-19 is "Ground Zero".

2.) I am not necessarily convinced that HRC's poor performance in Northern Maine was *primarily* a result of her Gender, although it may well have been a factor on the margins, but rather because of the "Economic Value Proposition", which Trump used to appeal to Maine Primary Voters within the State in '16 and accentuated certain concepts, which were frequently localized in nature to multiple communities during the GOP '16 PRIMs.

3.) Many Atlas / TE Members significantly underestimate the power of Trade Policy related items, especially in economically deprived communities heavily dependent upon the harvesting and processing of raw materials and the impacts upon entire places, families, etc...

4.) The Trump "Trade War" against Canada targeted what they considered unfair trade competition from Canada in the form of the following Economic Categories:

      A.) Fishing---   (ME, AK, WA, OR)

      B.) Pulp & Paper Industry (ME, AK, WA, OR)... we can even throw in places in WI (and possibly
           even in the Southlands, but those were accidental)
     
      C.) Dairy Farming  (OR and WI)

      D.) Cranberry Farming (OR, WI & ME)

Probably a few more out there that I am forgetting...

5.) The reality is that as an Oregonian, I have posted and commented upon multiple threads, including detailed level precinct level results from OR from various communities directly impacted.

6.) Trump has failed to deliver on his policies on the "Trade War with Canada" and "renegotiating NAFTA", which is precisely why we see significant swings towards Biden, after (4) Years of False hopes and promises, while in some ways falsely accusing Canada of "Unfair Trade Practices".

7.) Trump has essentially been exposed as an Emperor with No Clothes (Sorry *must scrub brain of mental image* ), so swingers gonna swing hard from Northern Maine to parts of Wisconsin, Oregon, and Alaska....
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2020, 03:54:10 AM »

Can we make ME-02 more Dem in redistricting?

They might as well switch to a winner-take-all system at that point.

That could end up backfiring hard on Dems when Maine statewide narrowly flips in like 2028, if the overall election is somehow decided by one electoral vote. Nebraska isn't at risk of becoming a swing state any time soon though, so that can be made winner take all with virtually no risk.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2020, 07:36:06 AM »

Am I the only one that thinksTrump is going to outperform polling in mE 02
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Figueira
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2020, 09:21:52 AM »

Am I the only one that thinksTrump is going to outperform polling in mE 02

It's certainly possible. He did in 2016.
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TML
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2020, 11:01:57 AM »

Can we make ME-02 more Dem in redistricting?

The way to do that is by moving Lewiston to district 1 and some coastal areas north/east of Portland to district 2.
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