FL-Monmouth: Biden CLOBBERS Trump in Florida (+5)

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL, Marist and Monmouth have Biden winning by roughly the same margin but one has him losing Hispanics 52/46 and the other winning them 58/32.

[Asta]

Nice to see but I doubt anyone wins in FL by 5. Monmouth is high quality but still tends to have a bit of D bias. The most likely outcome is Biden +2 or 3.

[xavier110]

Let’s not even have to wait until the Midwest. CRUSH him, Florida!

[Buzz]

LOL, Marist and Monmouth have Biden winning by roughly the same margin but one has him losing Hispanics 52/46 and the other winning them 58/32.

Monmouth has trump winning seniors

[n1240]

I still think these estimates can be shaky but it is very interesting that 17% of voters now indicate they will vote on election day when it was 33% in their previous poll. Seems like a considerable amount of voters who planned on voting election day are opting to vote early in-person instead.

[wbrocks67]

Nice to see but I doubt anyone wins in FL by 5. Monmouth is high quality but still tends to have a bit of D bias. The most likely outcome is Biden +2 or 3.

Not really true. Monmouth has been pretty bearish on Trump for most of the cycle.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I still think these estimates can be shaky but it is very interesting that 17% of voters now indicate they will vote on election day when it was 33% in their previous poll. Seems like a considerable amount of voters who planned on voting election day are opting to vote early in-person instead.

Which pretty much explains why Republicans are doing so well in early voting. They are cannibalizing their ED vote as much as Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

B-b-b-b-but I thought FL was gone for Democrats!!!

2000: "No way FL will be the tipping-point state, W. has it and Jeb said he’s right to go to CA instead!"
2004: "FL will go down to the wire just like in 2000"
2008: "Hillary would win it but Obama is the worst possible fit for FL, McCain has FL!"
2012: "It’ll be close, but Titanium Tilt (R)omney"
2016: "GOP should be SCARED of Hillary's strength in FL, Hispanics will be Trump's downfall"
2020: "If Nelson couldn’t win in a D+9 year, how can Biden possibly win? Titanium Tilt R because socialism/Miami-Dade/Cubans/Hispanics"

[Hollywood]

Democrats are getting killed by Republican women.  My friend in Broward is panicking cause there's over 650,000 Republican voters, mostly rural men, that have yet to vote.  Says the Biden campaign cannot find votes in Broward County, and many people that planned to vote by mail have not done so at this time.  Nothing has been cannabalized aside from Democrat votes on election day, which might favor Republicans by 2-1.  Miami-Dade is a disaster for them.  There's no organization on college campuses.  5 points is fantasy land.   

[User441]

Lean D

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can't believe I am actually growing reassured about Florida. Still cautiously though, my defenses aren't completely down!

[Bootes Void]

I can't believe I am actually growing reassured about Florida. Still cautiously though, my defenses aren't completely down!

I would never reassured about Florida considering both DeSantis and Scott won in 2018 despite being down by similar margins( DeSantis moreso)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Democrats are getting killed by Republican women.  My friend in Broward is panicking cause there's over 650,000 Republican voters, mostly rural men, that have yet to vote.  

650,000 "rural" voters (mostly) crammed into 4,500 acres (about 7 square miles)? That's around how much rural space that Broward County has.  

Source: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/fl-ne-broward-largest-vacant-lands-20200131-onmltoifjvdp3mqjptxkopzyoe-story.html%3foutputType=amp

And considering that there's around 4,400 people per square mile in Broward, I'd say your friend is off by quite a bit.

Source: https://www.broward.org/PlanningCouncil/Pages/Setting.aspx#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20United%20States,square%20mile%20of%20urbanized%20area.

[Hollywood]

Democrats are getting killed by Republican women.  My friend in Broward is panicking cause there's over 650,000 Republican voters, mostly rural men, that have yet to vote.  

650,000 "rural" voters (mostly) crammed into 4,500 acres (about 7 square miles)? That's around how much rural space that Broward County has.  

Source: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/fl-ne-broward-largest-vacant-lands-20200131-onmltoifjvdp3mqjptxkopzyoe-story.html%3foutputType=amp

And considering that there's around 4,400 people per square mile in Broward, I'd say your friend is off by quite a bit.

Source: https://www.broward.org/PlanningCouncil/Pages/Setting.aspx#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20United%20States,square%20mile%20of%20urbanized%20area.

My bad.  The wording I used was confusing.  I meant 650,000 in the state. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can't believe I am actually growing reassured about Florida. Still cautiously though, my defenses aren't completely down!

I would never reassured about Florida considering both DeSantis and Scott won in 2018 despite being down by similar margins( DeSantis moreso)

You don't have to tell me twice! The 2018 elections in Florida ruined that entire midterm, and broke me even more when it came to my least favorite state in the union. However, Monmouth isn't tainted from those elections like other pollsters are. I looked and couldn't find a single poll they issued from that year in Florida. Sure, they could be wrong too, but I am comforted by this fact, some of the early voting, and the fact that Biden is at 50% or so in many polls here. It's still only a tossup though.

I have issued an ultimatum for the state on top of everything. If they vote for Biden I have decided to not make a single joke or disparaging comment about them until the next time they vote statewide for a Republican...so 2022.