MI - Kiaer Research: Peters +13% (user search)
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  MI - Kiaer Research: Peters +13% (search mode)
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Author Topic: MI - Kiaer Research: Peters +13%  (Read 4109 times)
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« on: October 30, 2020, 10:31:02 AM »

Total trash.
James will win this race by outperforming in Oakland County and with African American men.

James wins 49 47%
Trump wins MI 48.5 47.5%
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2020, 02:18:21 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2020, 02:22:44 PM by SN2903 »

Total trash.
James will win this race by outperforming in Oakland County and with African American men.

James wins 49 47%
Trump wins MI 48.5 47.5%

You're anticipating just under 2016-levels of third-party voters this time around, SN?
No polls cannot accurately poll the Midwest anymore (mainstream ones). They are overestimating support of WWC voters for Biden and Biden will underperform with AA turnout and Trump will get better numbers with AA men than 2016. That's the hidden vote. I live the Midwest and I understand it well. I correctly predicted 2016. The Democratic party does not fit culturally in the Midwest anymore. It's doing better in areas like GA, NC, TX because it fits in culturally with the population in those states because the whites are younger. In the Midwest the white population is older and WWC voters (without college degrees) have been leaving the democratic party in droves for the last decade. They were even talking on MSNBC this morning how the polls missed WWC votes in 2018 in polls just like 2016 it just was 18 was a D year. 2020 is not a D year. It's mixed at best for the Dems. Has nothing to do with 3rd parties.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2020, 02:19:00 PM »

James and Trump will win Michigan. The polls were way off last time and they are way off this time too.
Yep . I explain my analysis in the post above.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2020, 02:20:27 PM »

I doubt Peters wins by this much (and if he does, Republicans will be lucky to get 45 seats), but to predict James will win at this point is to just be delusional. There was a huge late surge for Republicans in 2016 in Michigan polls, and James gained quite a bit at the end of 2018 (though it obviously wasn't enough), but we're seeing the opposite this year. If James were to pull off an upset, we'd see him go from down 5-6% to down 1-3%, we wouldn't see him losing ground.
The polls are WRONG dude. Biden has no energy. Even NBC and Politico are saying it! His turnout in Miami Dade is Putrid. Trump is drawing 15-20k people at rallies all over the country. You dems are so delusional. It's not even funny. It's not a 6-8 pt nationally it's a 2 to 4 pt race nationally in the PV.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2020, 03:23:48 PM »

James and Trump will win Michigan. The polls were way off last time and they are way off this time too.

SN, you’ve been warned about sock puppets.

I know who SN alternate ego is, but that alternate was post moderated and won't be coming back. It you say the user out loud, he will just deny it. But, trust me, he is gone forever
I don't have any sock accounts.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2020, 05:51:15 PM »

I doubt Peters wins by this much (and if he does, Republicans will be lucky to get 45 seats), but to predict James will win at this point is to just be delusional. There was a huge late surge for Republicans in 2016 in Michigan polls, and James gained quite a bit at the end of 2018 (though it obviously wasn't enough), but we're seeing the opposite this year. If James were to pull off an upset, we'd see him go from down 5-6% to down 1-3%, we wouldn't see him losing ground.
The polls are WRONG dude. Biden has no energy. Even NBC and Politico are saying it! His turnout in Miami Dade is Putrid. Trump is drawing 15-20k people at rallies all over the country. You dems are so delusional. It's not even funny. It's not a 6-8 pt nationally it's a 2 to 4 pt race nationally in the PV.

Delusion.

What will be your reaction if the polls are right and Biden does win MI/PA/WI by 6-7 points and the popular vote by 10+ points?
No chance. 0% chance
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