MI - Kiaer Research: Peters +13%

[President Johnson]

Total trash.
James will win this race by outperforming in Oakland County and with African American men.

James wins 49 47%
Trump wins MI 48.5 47.5%

You're anticipating just under 2016-levels of third-party voters this time around, SN?

No polls cannot accurately poll the Midwest anymore (mainstream ones). They are overestimating support of WWC voters for Biden and Biden will underperform with AA turnout and Trump will get better numbers with AA men than 2016. That's the hidden vote. I live the Midwest and I understand it well. I correctly predicted 2016. The Democratic party does not fit culturally in the Midwest anymore. It's doing better in areas like GA, NC, TX because it fits in culturally with the population in those states because the whites are younger. In the Midwest the white population is older and WWC voters (without college degrees) have been leaving the democratic party in droves for the last decade. They were even talking on MSNBC this morning how the polls missed WWC votes in 2018 in polls just like 2016 it just was 18 was a D year. 2020 is not a D year. It's mixed at best for the Dems. Has nothing to do with 3rd parties.

There is nothing that suggest your take is remotely true other than "muh 2016". Polls in Michigan were spot on in 2018, as they were almost across the country. In Florida, Republicans and Iowa, Republicans were underestimated by a fraction, while Democrats were underestimated in Nevada, as well as Texas in 2016. If we adjust the exact same polling errors from 2016 to 2020, Joe Biden would win Texas. Do I think that will happen? Maybe, but lean no. Even if you only look at polling errors from 2016, where Trump benefited from, Joe Biden still wins comfortably. And that ignores the fact pollsters improved their modeling, especially by weighing education of white voters.

Let's also dispel the myth polling errors, that always happen to a degree, solely benefit Republicans. It's very possible they underestimate Joe Biden. That being said, I don't think Peters will win by 13%, but there is nothing that suggests he is on track to oust Peters other than you want it to happen and "muh 2016".

Crowd sizes don't mean anything, my friend. If that was true, Bernie Sanders would be the one you're running against. But you run against Joe Biden, who won primaries in states he didn't even set a foot in (see Maine, Washington state and Minnesota). Almost all people showing up at Trump rallies vote for him anyway. It's his hardcore base (that ignores health guidelines, other than Team Joe), which he traded for moderate suburbanites and women in particular. And that's why Trump is headed for a major defeat. And that's a good thing. Because Joe Biden will also work to represent you and not just his base. That's what leaders do.