Trafalgar - FL: Trump +3, NV: Biden +2 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:19:38 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Trafalgar - FL: Trump +3, NV: Biden +2 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Trafalgar - FL: Trump +3, NV: Biden +2  (Read 4223 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: December 15, 2020, 05:15:22 PM »

Cannot *wait* for Trafalgar to be consigned to the dust bin of polling history next week.

You'll have to wait longer. Trafalgar will be around for some time, and we should continue to pay some attention to their polling. Quinnipiac and Monmouth though, which were way more inaccurate and treated as gold mines by people on this forum and data pundits like Nate Silver, should be dismissed from now on - or at the very least one election cycle until they can prove their viability again.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2020, 06:32:55 AM »

Cannot *wait* for Trafalgar to be consigned to the dust bin of polling history next week.

You'll have to wait longer. Trafalgar will be around for some time, and we should continue to pay some attention to their polling. Quinnipiac and Monmouth though, which were way more inaccurate and treated as gold mines by people on this forum and data pundits like Nate Silver, should be dismissed from now on - or at the very least one election cycle until they can prove their viability again.

Part of the reason people dismiss Trafalgar is their lack of transparency. They don't include cross tabs or methodology. They release an improbable amount of polls within short periods of time. The director goes on Fox News and feeds into conspiracy theories.

Yeah, Monmouth and Quinnipiac weren't great, but atleast we know they actually polled people. I'm still not convinced Trafalgar isn't just making up numbers. And if they are going out into the field and polling people, they should be more upfront on how they're getting their results.

I agree, they should be more transparent. But let's just admit something - the fact that they're more accurate than Monmouth and Quinnipiac despite his partisan antics and lack of detail is still astounding in itself, and not just in 2020, for three cycles in a row now. I've never argued that Trafalgar is this gold standard pollster that should be universally respected, but rather that we should at least pay attention and consider what they come up with, given their record. That sentiment went out the window with the Dem hacks on here and the Dem hacks in the modeling/polling/prognosticator fields, who did nothing but viciously attack the firm and junk them from their analysis.

I also refuse to believe that they'll always have good numbers for Republicans in every state/election.They didn't always have Trump up in all the states they polled. They consistently had Biden up in Wisconsin and Minnesota for months despite some Trump supporters confident in flipping Minnesota. They had Biden up in Pennsylvania until the last week.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.019 seconds with 13 queries.