Trafalgar - FL: Trump +3, NV: Biden +2
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May 07, 2021, 05:53:36 PM

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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Trafalgar - FL: Trump +3, NV: Biden +2
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Author Topic: Trafalgar - FL: Trump +3, NV: Biden +2  (Read 1564 times)
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #25 on: October 29, 2020, 11:20:44 PM »

This is not a shock poll, it's a Trafalgar poll
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AGA
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« Reply #26 on: October 29, 2020, 11:31:12 PM »

Can we stop clogging the board with these fabricated polls?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2020, 06:44:28 AM »

Also; is it just me or is Trafalgar releasing polls like way too often? It gives them disproportionate say in the averages.

538 and the Economist have banned them from their averages. I don't think Nate Silver has officially given them the F rating but their last few polls have not appeared on the site.

I'm on the edge of excluding them from my averages, because I don't want to biased, but I also feel like it's wrong to include stuff that's just complete BS.

I understand the desire to include all the available data, but Trafalgar's data is clearly and consistently biased, and will distort your averages.
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Horus
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« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2020, 06:45:27 AM »

I think Nate silver nailed it when he tweeted about them recently



there is nothing shoking about the results of any Trafalgar poll at this point
I mean the same can be said for Q-PAC and NYT

Quinnipiac yes but as for NYT all we know in advance is they'll have too many undecideds. Not really the same.
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Reluctant hardcore partisan Darthpi
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« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2020, 05:27:44 PM »

I feel like this is as good a thread as any to note that 538 seems to no longer be entering any new Trafalgar polls into their database, last one was the North Carolina poll four days ago.

Update on this: Apparently they're back in the averages now, but all will be considered partisan polls.





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Bootes Void
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« Reply #30 on: December 15, 2020, 02:00:06 PM »

Not bad Trafalgar, I guess your the #gold standard now
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Devils30
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« Reply #31 on: December 15, 2020, 05:08:14 PM »

They still missed by 6 in Georgia, 3 in PA, 3 in NV, 2 in AZ, 5 in MI.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #32 on: December 15, 2020, 05:15:22 PM »

Cannot *wait* for Trafalgar to be consigned to the dust bin of polling history next week.

You'll have to wait longer. Trafalgar will be around for some time, and we should continue to pay some attention to their polling. Quinnipiac and Monmouth though, which were way more inaccurate and treated as gold mines by people on this forum and data pundits like Nate Silver, should be dismissed from now on - or at the very least one election cycle until they can prove their viability again.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #33 on: December 15, 2020, 07:07:42 PM »
« Edited: December 15, 2020, 07:16:14 PM by BudgieForce »

Cannot *wait* for Trafalgar to be consigned to the dust bin of polling history next week.

You'll have to wait longer. Trafalgar will be around for some time, and we should continue to pay some attention to their polling. Quinnipiac and Monmouth though, which were way more inaccurate and treated as gold mines by people on this forum and data pundits like Nate Silver, should be dismissed from now on - or at the very least one election cycle until they can prove their viability again.

Part of the reason people dismiss Trafalgar is their lack of transparency. They don't include cross tabs or methodology. They release an improbable amount of polls within short periods of time. The director goes on Fox News and feeds into conspiracy theories.

Yeah, Monmouth and Quinnipiac weren't great, but atleast we know they actually polled people. I'm still not convinced Trafalgar isn't just making up numbers. And if they are going out into the field and polling people, they should be more upfront on how they're getting their results.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #34 on: December 15, 2020, 07:10:51 PM »

Despite the polling, I was convinced Florida would go republican.

I thought that due to DeSantis and Rick Scott beating Gillum and Bill Nelson.

I'm really not surprised Trump won that state.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #35 on: December 18, 2020, 06:32:55 AM »

Cannot *wait* for Trafalgar to be consigned to the dust bin of polling history next week.

You'll have to wait longer. Trafalgar will be around for some time, and we should continue to pay some attention to their polling. Quinnipiac and Monmouth though, which were way more inaccurate and treated as gold mines by people on this forum and data pundits like Nate Silver, should be dismissed from now on - or at the very least one election cycle until they can prove their viability again.

Part of the reason people dismiss Trafalgar is their lack of transparency. They don't include cross tabs or methodology. They release an improbable amount of polls within short periods of time. The director goes on Fox News and feeds into conspiracy theories.

Yeah, Monmouth and Quinnipiac weren't great, but atleast we know they actually polled people. I'm still not convinced Trafalgar isn't just making up numbers. And if they are going out into the field and polling people, they should be more upfront on how they're getting their results.

I agree, they should be more transparent. But let's just admit something - the fact that they're more accurate than Monmouth and Quinnipiac despite his partisan antics and lack of detail is still astounding in itself, and not just in 2020, for three cycles in a row now. I've never argued that Trafalgar is this gold standard pollster that should be universally respected, but rather that we should at least pay attention and consider what they come up with, given their record. That sentiment went out the window with the Dem hacks on here and the Dem hacks in the modeling/polling/prognosticator fields, who did nothing but viciously attack the firm and junk them from their analysis.

I also refuse to believe that they'll always have good numbers for Republicans in every state/election.They didn't always have Trump up in all the states they polled. They consistently had Biden up in Wisconsin and Minnesota for months despite some Trump supporters confident in flipping Minnesota. They had Biden up in Pennsylvania until the last week.
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