Trafalgar - FL: Trump +3, NV: Biden +2
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  Trafalgar - FL: Trump +3, NV: Biden +2
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Author Topic: Trafalgar - FL: Trump +3, NV: Biden +2  (Read 4228 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
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« on: October 29, 2020, 09:58:37 PM »
« edited: October 30, 2020, 08:30:09 AM by YE »

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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2020, 09:59:41 PM »

You meant Trump +3 right?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2020, 09:59:59 PM »

Let me guess...is Trump leading in FL-21?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2020, 10:00:26 PM »


I mean, this basically translates to Biden + 3
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soundchaser
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2020, 10:00:58 PM »

Cannot *wait* for Trafalgar to be consigned to the dust bin of polling history next week.
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Buzz
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2020, 10:01:09 PM »

Title gave me a heart attack, ngl
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2020, 10:01:59 PM »

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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2020, 10:02:41 PM »

Biden is leading in NV though, so we can enjoy that at least.

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Gracile
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2020, 10:03:31 PM »

The title should say Trump +3.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2020, 10:05:34 PM »

Ugh please make it stop.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2020, 10:06:46 PM »

Also; is it just me or is Trafalgar releasing polls like way too often? It gives them disproportionate say in the averages.
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compucomp
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2020, 10:08:58 PM »

Also; is it just me or is Trafalgar releasing polls like way too often? It gives them disproportionate say in the averages.

538 and the Economist have banned them from their averages. I don't think Nate Silver has officially given them the F rating but their last few polls have not appeared on the site.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2020, 10:11:18 PM »

Also; is it just me or is Trafalgar releasing polls like way too often? It gives them disproportionate say in the averages.

538 and the Economist have banned them from their averages. I don't think Nate Silver has officially given them the F rating but their last few polls have not appeared on the site.

I'm on the edge of excluding them from my averages, because I don't want to biased, but I also feel like it's wrong to include stuff that's just complete BS.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2020, 10:16:50 PM »

This is the only poll of there’s that is plausible.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2020, 10:22:27 PM »

I typically recalibrate where I think things actually stand according to the pollster and Trafalgar goes something like this. If D is ahead, it's safe D, if Rs ahead by less than 5, it's probably lean D, if R ahead by 5-10, then it's probably a tossup.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2020, 10:24:29 PM »

I feel like this is as good a thread as any to note that 538 seems to no longer be entering any new Trafalgar polls into their database, last one was the North Carolina poll four days ago.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2020, 10:24:35 PM »

Why am I not shocked by the SHOCK POLL?

Could it be because it is from Trafalgar and it has Trump winning, but by a narrow margin?
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Hollywood
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2020, 10:26:03 PM »

I just don't look at polls without data.  There's nothing to learn from a poll that can't give me some information about the way a demographic is going to vote or whether they are voting.   I just like the distribution of Spanish votes in the state, cause it's kind of in line with comprehensive polls, particularly the ones that just have Hispanic respondents.  
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2020, 10:26:44 PM »

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Hammy
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2020, 10:27:39 PM »

Just a reminder, Trafalgar was the only pollster to under-poll Dems (and did under-poll Republicans) in Florida in 2018
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roxas11
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2020, 10:42:25 PM »

I think Nate silver nailed it when he tweeted about them recently



there is nothing shocking about the results of any Trafalgar poll at this point
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Buzz
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2020, 10:44:22 PM »

I think Nate silver nailed it when he tweeted about them recently



there is nothing shoking about the results of any Trafalgar poll at this point
I mean the same can be said for Q-PAC and NYT
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2020, 10:45:35 PM »

This is the same % again as the results that were online over the weekend and then pulled.
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roxas11
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2020, 10:51:32 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2020, 11:08:43 PM by roxas11 »

I think Nate silver nailed it when he tweeted about them recently



there is nothing shocking about the results of any Trafalgar poll at this point
I mean the same can be said for Q-PAC and NYT

Q-PAC and NYT has also released the methodology and cross tabs for every polls they have put out


The same can not be said of Trafalgar.....

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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2020, 10:58:27 PM »

I think Nate silver nailed it when he tweeted about them recently



there is nothing shoking about the results of any Trafalgar poll at this point
I mean the same can be said for Q-PAC and NYT

Quinnipiac's last two polls of Florida were Biden +11 and Biden +3. That's way less predictable than Trafalgar and their endless drumbeat of Trump +1 to +3 in literally every competitive state.
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