CCES/YouGov: Biden +8
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  CCES/YouGov: Biden +8
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Author Topic: CCES/YouGov: Biden +8  (Read 1743 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: October 29, 2020, 06:41:36 PM »

Sep 29-Oct 27, 50,908 LV

Biden 51%
Trump 43%

https://bfschaffner.shinyapps.io/CES2020/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2020, 06:42:12 PM »

I was wondering why the cross tabs were wonky and then I saw it was YouGov....
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philly09
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2020, 06:44:57 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2020, 06:48:59 PM »



Yeah, in many ways this is acting like an exit poll given its size.
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philly09
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2020, 06:51:37 PM »

Trump winning Indies?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2020, 06:55:59 PM »

If Biden is only losing whites by 5 points, he's not losing independents and he's winning by more than 8 points.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2020, 07:00:50 PM »

Also, lol plugging this into the Cook-swing-meter still gives Biden the 413 map.
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Buzz
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2020, 07:05:10 PM »

It’s going to be fascinating to see if Trump really lost whites as bad as some of these polls are showing.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2020, 07:06:47 PM »

It’s going to be fascinating to see if Trump really lost whites as bad as some of these polls are showing.

It would be especially ironic if his mild gains with non-whites is rendered completely moot because of it.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2020, 07:10:55 PM »

Wait the CCES survey is just a big YouGov poll?? That’s disappointing.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2020, 07:12:45 PM »

Wait the CCES survey is just a big YouGov poll?? That’s disappointing.

Yeah, they also said that this is just the preliminary results.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2020, 07:19:54 PM »

So this isn't a poll per se.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2020, 07:36:50 PM »

I wish the margin was larger.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2020, 08:11:48 PM »

So is this pretty much just an entrance poll?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2020, 08:13:55 PM »

Also, lol plugging this into the Cook-swing-meter still gives Biden the 413 map.

It’s happening!
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Horus
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2020, 08:28:36 PM »


So do I, this really isn't that great.
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tjstarling
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2020, 08:34:19 PM »

Oh Jesus Christ. An 8 point win would be the largest since 1996 but of course it “isn’t that great.” Do people here honestly believe Biden needs to win by 15 to take the electoral college. A popular vote win by half this size is likely still a Biden win.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2020, 08:34:37 PM »

If Biden is only losing whites by 5 points, he's not losing independents and he's winning by more than 8 points.

This would be catastrophic for Rs up and down the ballot.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2020, 08:34:58 PM »


An 8 point win is a comfortable win that as noted could still even mean the 413 map. It would be the largest winning margin since 1996. Would it be nice if it was even larger? Sure. But Biden ain’t losing the EC if he’s winning by 8 points.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2020, 08:35:34 PM »

Oh Jesus Christ. An 8 point win would be the largest since 1984 but of course it “isn’t that great.” Do people here honestly believe Biden needs to win by 15 to take the electoral college. A popular vote win by half this size is likely still a Biden win.

I think it’s 1996 (Clinton won by about 9 IIRC) but otherwise, totally agree.

Oh and considering how much more polarized we are than we were in the 80s or 90s, an 8 point win would be essentially a blowout equivalent to a double digit win back then. If he actually DOES get a double digit win? Well considering the polarization, that might arguably be an even more impressive feat than Reagan’s 49 state landslide in 1984.
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tjstarling
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2020, 08:37:44 PM »

Oh Jesus Christ. An 8 point win would be the largest since 1984 but of course it “isn’t that great.” Do people here honestly believe Biden needs to win by 15 to take the electoral college. A popular vote win by half this size is likely still a Biden win.

I think it’s 1996 (Clinton won by about 9 IIRC) but otherwise, totally agree.
You are correct. I fixed it. Forgot about 1996 (but can you blame me - maybe the most unremarkable election since the 1920’s).
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2020, 08:38:41 PM »

Oh Jesus Christ. An 8 point win would be the largest since 1984 but of course it “isn’t that great.” Do people here honestly believe Biden needs to win by 15 to take the electoral college. A popular vote win by half this size is likely still a Biden win.

I think it’s 1996 (Clinton won by about 9 IIRC) but otherwise, totally agree.

Oh and considering how much more polarized we are than we were in the 80s or 90s, an 8 point win would be essentially a blowout equivalent to a double digit win back then. If he actually DOES get a double digit win? Well considering the polarization, that might arguably be an even more impressive feat than Reagan’s 49 state landslide in 1984.

GHWB only won by 7.7 in 1988 but in hindsight it seemed much larger because of the electoral college landslide.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2020, 08:42:11 PM »

LOL why is everyone upset over a poll showing Biden "only" up by 8%?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2020, 08:46:23 PM »

Oh Jesus Christ. An 8 point win would be the largest since 1984 but of course it “isn’t that great.” Do people here honestly believe Biden needs to win by 15 to take the electoral college. A popular vote win by half this size is likely still a Biden win.

I think it’s 1996 (Clinton won by about 9 IIRC) but otherwise, totally agree.

Oh and considering how much more polarized we are than we were in the 80s or 90s, an 8 point win would be essentially a blowout equivalent to a double digit win back then. If he actually DOES get a double digit win? Well considering the polarization, that might arguably be an even more impressive feat than Reagan’s 49 state landslide in 1984.

GHWB only won by 7.7 in 1988 but in hindsight it seemed much larger because of the electoral college landslide.

That one always throws me for a loop.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2020, 08:54:43 PM »

CCES is a study designed for academic use, and it has been the gold standard of American election data for political scientists since I believe 2006.  The survey is extremely long and they collect a very large sample so that you can get meaningful results at the congressional district level.  CCES stands for “Cooperative Congressional Election Study”, and they ask a lot of questions about congressional candidates and issues/bills voted on the past congressional term.   There is a pre-election survey and post-election survey given to the same respondents.

I used it’s data in my dissertation to generate common-space ideology scores for legislators and congressional constituencies.  It’s a massive and terrific project, but it’s not really designed for day-to-day horserace polling.
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