The Hill/HarrisX: Biden +4/+6

[VAR]

Oct. 25-28, 2359 LV, MoE: 2%

Biden 49%
Trump 45%
Other 2%
Not sure/don’t know 3%

With leaners
Biden 53%
Trump 47%

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/523419-poll-trump-trails-biden-by-4-percentage-points-nationwide-ahead

[LimoLiberal]

What were their previous #s?

[Alben Barkley]

What were their previous #s?

Biden 46-42.

So basically no change in one of Trump’s best pollsters except fewer undecideds. And when pushed, they lean Biden.

[BudgieForce]

One of the things I'll be grateful for when the election is over is that I'll no longer have to see Harris X's weekly tracker.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Every sh**tty pollster is unloading its trash. 

[Hammy]

Every sh**tty pollster is unloading its trash. 

If nothing else, at least we're not seeing the levels of poll herding we saw in 2016.

[Gass3268]

538 is counting the 53-47 results as a LV screen.

[wbrocks67]

Every sh**tty pollster is unloading its trash. 

Yep. Dragging down the average one by one.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

3% of likely voters are not voting (downballot-only types? ).

These are actually their first results among likely voters. Among registered voters, they are as follows (the previous poll was October 13-15):

Biden 46% (n/c)
Trump 42% (n/c)
Not voting 3% (n/c)
Other 3% (n/c)
Not sure 5% (-1)

MoE: 1.85% for registered voters, 2% for likely voters

[Ljube]

So, it's anywhere from Biden+4 to Biden+6. Early voting results in Nevada are consistent with this.

[Alben Barkley]

So, it's anywhere from Biden+4 to Biden+6. Early voting results in Nevada are consistent with this.

1. One poll. One that has been consistently favorable to Trump compared to other polls. Averages disagree. Higher quality polls disagree even more.

2. No. Early voting results in Nevada are not consistent with this.