TX - RMG Research/PoliticalIQ: Trump +4
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  TX - RMG Research/PoliticalIQ: Trump +4
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Author Topic: TX - RMG Research/PoliticalIQ: Trump +4  (Read 1037 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 29, 2020, 03:06:38 PM »
« edited: October 29, 2020, 03:09:58 PM by VARepublican »

Oct. 27-28, 800 LV, MoE: 3.5%

Trump 50%
Biden 46%
Someone else 2%
Not sure 2%

Strong Democratic turnout:
Biden 48%
Trump 48%

Strong Republican turnout:
Trump 52%
Biden 44%

http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/29/tx-trump-50-biden-46/
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2020, 03:12:38 PM »

This cancels out that good TX poll for Biden from earlier today. I would be curious to see their crosstabs
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2020, 03:14:15 PM »

Well we know we already have strong democratic turnout there as far as listed models...
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2020, 03:15:24 PM »

This cancels out that good TX poll for Biden from earlier today. I would be curious to see their crosstabs

A poll within the margin of error showing Trump ahead, doesn't cancel out anything, just like Iowa Senate Ernst plus 2, Graham plus 3 and and NH Gov Sununu plus 5 race.

🎃🎃🎃
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2020, 03:18:14 PM »

While my head still says Texas won't flip despite being close, if we apply the strong Democratic turnout, the poll finds a tie. From what we see, turnout in Texas is through to roof. I know not all of them are Democrats, but it should help Biden a lot still.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2020, 03:29:12 PM »

I am genuinely curious where pollsters like this are finding all these new Trump voters at? Do they honestly think he’s turning out new voters (for himself) in Dem trending big metros?

Just doesn’t pass the bullsh**t test.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2020, 03:38:40 PM »

Into the average.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2020, 03:50:20 PM »

Progressive Moderate models aren't useful any longer, we can do our own predicting and upsets from this point forward. The models were only there as a guide to approval ratings. pbower2A stopped doing approvals it's all about GOTV
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2020, 04:00:48 PM »

Progressive Moderate models aren't useful any longer, we can do our own predicting and upsets from this point forward. The models were only there as a guide to approval ratings. pbower2A stopped doing approvals it's all about GOTV

Give ‘em hell, man!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2020, 04:19:15 PM »

I am genuinely curious where pollsters like this are finding all these new Trump voters at? Do they honestly think he’s turning out new voters (for himself) in Dem trending big metros?

Just doesn’t pass the bullsh**t test.

I really feel like many pollsters downfalls this year will be trying to overcompensate for 2016
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2020, 04:25:27 PM »

I am genuinely curious where pollsters like this are finding all these new Trump voters at? Do they honestly think he’s turning out new voters (for himself) in Dem trending big metros?

Just doesn’t pass the bullsh**t test.

I really feel like many pollsters downfalls this year will be trying to overcompensate for 2016

Especially in places like TX and GA where there’s a ton of new voters that don’t seem to be adequately accounted for in polling.

For example, there is a very real if not likely chance that Travis County hits 700k voters on Election Day. They’re at 510k now with  1.5 days of EV left! A 78-21 Biden win here at that turnout would net him 400k in Travis alone.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2020, 08:44:55 PM »

New Poll: Texas President by RMG Research on 2020-10-28

Summary: D: 46%, R: 50%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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