IA-Quinnipiac: Ernst +2

[DrScholl]

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

[DrScholl]

Not surprised, should have been an omen when Greenfield was struggling to break 50%, given how undecideds here broke in 2014, 2016, and 2018.

I don't know what polls you are looking at, but for the most part Greenfield has performed better in polling overall than any Democrats did in the last few cycles.

[DrScholl]

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

No Democrat wants her to win, we just don't expect any better from a state like Iowa, and I'd be more than happy to be wrong and be surprised, but I'm not setting myself up for disappointment.

Not surprised, should have been an omen when Greenfield was struggling to break 50%, given how undecideds here broke in 2014, 2016, and 2018.

I don't know what polls you are looking at, but for the most part Greenfield has performed better in polling overall than any Democrats did in the last few cycles.

Hubbell was also doing well in polls and Braley and Ernst were basically tied in 2014, I don't put much faith into IA polling to begin with, given what we've seen in the past.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html#polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ia/iowa_governor_reynolds_vs_hubbell-6477.html#polls

The averages from those years suggest different.

[DrScholl]

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

No Democrat wants her to win, we just don't expect any better from a state like Iowa, and I'd be more than happy to be wrong and be surprised, but I'm not setting myself up for disappointment.

Not surprised, should have been an omen when Greenfield was struggling to break 50%, given how undecideds here broke in 2014, 2016, and 2018.

I don't know what polls you are looking at, but for the most part Greenfield has performed better in polling overall than any Democrats did in the last few cycles.

Hubbell was also doing well in polls and Braley and Ernst were basically tied in 2014, I don't put much faith into IA polling to begin with, given what we've seen in the past.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html#polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ia/iowa_governor_reynolds_vs_hubbell-6477.html#polls

The averages from those years suggest different.

Undecideds broke almost entirely for both Reynolds and Ernst, I think that will happen again.

You hope that will happen again. The differences now are that Ernst is an incumbent with an actual record and that governors races can be completely different than federal ones in a lot of places. By Republican logic undecideds break for the challenger, so you are violating your own rules.

[DrScholl]

Yikes. Yeah this race is gone.

Literally Montana might decide the Senate. Aka it’s not happening

This trolling is so annoying.

[DrScholl]

Just an FYI, polls underestimated Republicans in Iowa by 4 on average in 2016 and 2018.

Polls underestimated Ernst in 2014, as well..

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html

First off she was not an incumbent then and second she had varying leads across various polls not scattered ones. If anything she is in Braley's position.

[DrScholl]

DrScholl literally expected Braley to win in 2014...

If you registered here in 2020 how would you know that? Seems a little suspicious that a "new poster" would know what I supposedly posted years ago. You want to explain yourself?

[DrScholl]

Just an FYI, polls underestimated Republicans in Iowa by 4 on average in 2016 and 2018.

Polls underestimated Ernst in 2014, as well..

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html

First off she was not an incumbent then and second she had varying leads across various polls not scattered ones. If anything she is in Braley's position.

That doesn't detract from the fact that republicans have been underestimated in Iowa polling for the 3 distinct election cycles..

Of course, that may change this year.

There is a difference in between underperforming on margins and outright defying polls. Only Reynolds outperformed the average and there weren't that many polls in it. Ernst has trailed more than she has led and that says a lot.