Quinnipiac: Biden +3 in FL, Biden +7 in PA, Biden +5 in OH, Trump +1 in IA

[mijan]

OH voting left of FL?

[mijan]

44% Iowans will vote on E day according to Q poll, which is unlikely as 36k people are voting per day in IA. It will only increase as election day comes closer.

851k people have voted so far.Which is 55% of 2016.
Another 200k people will most probably vote early in 5 days .

That means 1051 k people will vote early . Which is 67% of 2016 and 51.1% of all Iowa active  voters.
In 2016 there were 1996 k active Iowa voters, 1566 k voted in 2016. Turnout is 78.45%. Among Republicans turnout was 87%, which will be difficult to replicate this year by the way.

According to Q poll early voting will only 55%, election day voter will be 44%. Then Q poll is estimating 860 k people  will vote on election day . With 1051 k early voters , total turnout  will be 1913 k .
Today in IA there are 2056 k active voters. So according to Q turnout will be 93% in IA.




Turnout in IA will most likely about 1600-1650k  . Q poll massively underestimating early voting.