UMass Lowell/YouGov: Biden +10 in NH, close races in TX and NC (user search)
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  UMass Lowell/YouGov: Biden +10 in NH, close races in TX and NC (search mode)
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Author Topic: UMass Lowell/YouGov: Biden +10 in NH, close races in TX and NC  (Read 1423 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: October 29, 2020, 11:24:41 AM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on October 29, 2020, 11:22:14 AM
Seems more realistic and likely than Biden winning NH by 19.

Polls have been very consistent in showing a gigantic swing to Biden in the NE.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2020, 11:26:49 AM »
Quote from: Beida on October 29, 2020, 11:24:34 AM
Do we expect a 9-pt swing in TX, 10-pt swing in NH, but only a 3-pt swing in NC? Biden's probably going to win all three of these states.

NC is super inelastic and has a lot more room for Trump rural improvement than other Southern states.  I think Biden with win it in the end, but it's the kind of place that you would expect to trend hard R with a large Dem NPV margin.

TX and GA basically have no room left for rural GOP improvement. 
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