Do we expect a 9-pt swing in TX, 10-pt swing in NH, but only a 3-pt swing in NC? Biden's probably going to win all three of these states.
NC is super inelastic and has a lot more room for Trump rural improvement than other Southern states. I think Biden with win it in the end, but it's the kind of place that you would expect to trend hard R with a large Dem NPV margin.
TX and GA basically have no room left for rural GOP improvement.
People also tend to forget how rural NC is relative to a lot of other swing states, such as TX.
