UMass Lowell/YouGov: Biden +10 in NH, close races in TX and NC
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  UMass Lowell/YouGov: Biden +10 in NH, close races in TX and NC
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Author Topic: UMass Lowell/YouGov: Biden +10 in NH, close races in TX and NC  (Read 1377 times)
Skye
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« on: October 29, 2020, 11:21:25 AM »
« edited: October 29, 2020, 11:28:51 AM by Skye »

NH:
Biden 53
Trump 43

https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-NH-Oct-Topline_tcm18-331636.pdf

NC:
Trump 48
Biden 48

https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-NC-Oct-Topline_tcm18-331629.pdf

TX:
Trump 48
Biden 47

https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-Texas-Oct-Topline_tcm18-331627.pdf
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2020, 11:22:14 AM »

Seems more realistic and likely than Biden winning NH by 19.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2020, 11:23:29 AM »

NC is voting a couple points than Tx. otherwise +10 in NH is more realistic than +19
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redjohn
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2020, 11:24:34 AM »

Do we expect a 9-pt swing in TX, 10-pt swing in NH, but only a 3-pt swing in NC? Biden's probably going to win all three of these states.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2020, 11:24:41 AM »

Seems more realistic and likely than Biden winning NH by 19.

Polls have been very consistent in showing a gigantic swing to Biden in the NE.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2020, 11:25:01 AM »

Their final 2016 NH poll was a tie at 44.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2020, 11:26:49 AM »

Do we expect a 9-pt swing in TX, 10-pt swing in NH, but only a 3-pt swing in NC? Biden's probably going to win all three of these states.

NC is super inelastic and has a lot more room for Trump rural improvement than other Southern states.  I think Biden with win it in the end, but it's the kind of place that you would expect to trend hard R with a large Dem NPV margin.

TX and GA basically have no room left for rural GOP improvement. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2020, 11:27:02 AM »

They had NC tied last time so no change there.

TX though was Trump +3 last time so tightening there towards Biden. Has the "already voted" at Biden +6.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2020, 11:27:59 AM »

Do we expect a 9-pt swing in TX, 10-pt swing in NH, but only a 3-pt swing in NC? Biden's probably going to win all three of these states.

This particular poll has Trump winning the non-white/black "other race" portion which is incredibly unlikely given Biden has been leading the polls of Latinos in NC by huge margins, so that might be it. Also, doubt Trump is getting nearly 15% of blacks in NC.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2020, 11:29:02 AM »

Do we expect a 9-pt swing in TX, 10-pt swing in NH, but only a 3-pt swing in NC? Biden's probably going to win all three of these states.

NC is super inelastic and has a lot more room for Trump rural improvement than other Southern states.  I think Biden with win it in the end, but it's the kind of place that you would expect to trend hard R with a large Dem NPV margin.

TX and GA basically have no room left for rural GOP improvement. 

People also tend to forget how rural NC is relative to a lot of other swing states, such as TX.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2020, 11:50:58 AM »

Conducted by YouGov

NH
757 likely voters
MoE: 4.5%
October 16-26
Changes with September 17-25

Biden 53% (+1)
Trump 43% (-1)
Jorgensen 2% (+1)
Another candidate 1% (-1)
Undecided 2% (+1)

https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-NH-Oct-Topline_tcm18-331636.pdf

NC
911 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%
October 20-26
Changes with September 18-25

Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 48% (+1)
Another candidate 1% (+1 from at 0% but with some voters)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Undecided 2% (n/c)

https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-NC-Oct-Topline_tcm18-331629.pdf

TX
873 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%
October 20-26
Changes with September 18-25

Trump 48% (-1)
Biden 47% (+1)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Another candidate 0% (no voters) (-2)
Undecided 1% (n/c)

https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-Texas-Oct-Topline_tcm18-331627.pdf
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Buzz
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2020, 12:23:02 PM »

These all look extremely reasonable
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Stuart98
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2020, 12:26:31 PM »


Thank you UMass-Lowell, very cool!
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2020, 04:15:55 PM »


Thank you UMass-Lowell, very cool!

Is beans in chili a No-No in Texas?
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2020, 04:53:04 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2020, 05:46:09 PM by Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »

Is there any difference in methodology between YouGov's polls with different sponsors? Their University of Houston poll conducted a week ago had Trump +5 in TX but this University of Massachusetts poll has Trump +1 in TX
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