ME-SurveyUSA: Gideon +1/+2

[Figueira]

Yup. She’s going to hold on isn’t she?

God Damn It. As I told you all and got laughed at for -
I knew the Senate wasn’t going to happen - but Ill admit I didn’t think it would be Maine to screw it up

It does make sense if you think about it. Maine is super wwc and the second district is a perfect fit both for Trump and for the direction I think the GOP is heading.

Hot take - Both Georgia seats are as or more likely to flip than Maine.

This take makes no sense given the presidential numbers in this poll. If Collins wins it's because there are still some Democrats who think she's reasonable.

Anyway, Tilt D.

[Figueira]

Yup. She’s going to hold on isn’t she?

God Damn It. As I told you all and got laughed at for -
I knew the Senate wasn’t going to happen - but Ill admit I didn’t think it would be Maine to screw it up

It does make sense if you think about it. Maine is super wwc and the second district is a perfect fit both for Trump and for the direction I think the GOP is heading.

Hot take - Both Georgia seats are as or more likely to flip than Maine.

This take makes no sense given the presidential numbers in this poll. If Collins wins it's because there are still some Democrats who think she's reasonable.

Anyway, Tilt D.

Yeah, Maine voters lean Democratic but they're independent and a bit quirky, and they will split their tickets. A plausible explanation could be that Maine voters now expect Biden to win and want Collins to be a "reasonable Republican" check on him, and she did just vote against ACB.

As for the polls, did any poll in 2016 show Ron Johnson ahead of Russ Feingold? I know the dynamics of the race were very different but that's an example.

There were some SurveyMonkey polls showing Johnson ahead or tied, and one Loras College poll showing him ahead.

[Figueira]

RCV will help Gideon and partisanship will win out in this race in the end. Tilt D.

If dems steal this race with RCV I swear to god.

Even if you don't like RCV, people are voting under the assumption that it's RCV. If there wasn't RCV, less people would vote third party. The first round totals don't necessarily reflect what the race would look like without RCV.