Who will win? megathread

[big data boi]

Yo doomers, can you all just do us a favor and chew some xanax for the next few days? I get that you're scarred from 2016 but jesus christ

[Ferguson97]

I have Biden at a floor of 269 EVs, so no.

What's your map, Clinton map plus Michigan, Pennsylvania, and NE-02?

[Real Texan Politics]

Could he? Maybe.

Will he? Doubt it but the chance is still there even if it's small.

[Fusternino]

He's going to win. There's clearly about a 10 point error in the polls in his favor. He will keep the 2016 map and add NV and MN.

My sarcasm detector is failing me here.

In case this somehow isn't sarcasm: In the modern history of election polling there has only been a national polling error of that size once at 6 days out from the election, in 1980. Even in that year, the polling shifted pretty clearly in Reagan's direction in the handful of days remaining, as people made up their minds after the unusually late first-and-only presidential debate of that cycle, which had only occurred on October 28th and which pretty much everyone considers to have been a decisive debate victory for Reagan. Unless you are counting on some earth-shattering event in the next five days (perhaps even literally Earth shattering, like all of coastal California falling into the sea) causing a drastic shift in the race, please, explain how you think there will be a polling miss even worse than the final miss for that year.

Man I am so tired of responding to the bullcrap this year.

Just a week from finding out!

[super6646]

Yes. He will win 1000 electoral college votes from San Francisco to Moscow, Russia.

[Suburbia]

No, I hope not.

If he does win, blame overconfident Dems, polls

Polling industry may be in decline if he wins again

You can also blame rioters for taking away BLM's message

But they'll be back in 2024

[Wrenchmob]

If he steals it, yes.

[Wrenchmob]

He's going to win. There's clearly about a 10 point error in the polls in his favor. He will keep the 2016 map and add NV and MN.

My sarcasm detector is failing me here.

In case this somehow isn't sarcasm: In the modern history of election polling there has only been a national polling error of that size once at 6 days out from the election, in 1980. Even in that year, the polling shifted pretty clearly in Reagan's direction in the handful of days remaining, as people made up their minds after the unusually late first-and-only presidential debate of that cycle, which had only occurred on October 28th and which pretty much everyone considers to have been a decisive debate victory for Reagan. Unless you are counting on some earth-shattering event in the next five days (perhaps even literally Earth shattering, like all of coastal California falling into the sea) causing a drastic shift in the race, please, explain how you think there will be a polling miss even worse than the final miss for that year.

Man I am so tired of responding to the bullcrap this year.

Just a week from finding out!

It's not impossible that the polls are 10 points off. Mark Warner almost lost in 2014 after being expected to win by double digets.

[Middle-aged Europe]

HARHARHARHARHARHARHARHAR.

No.

[bagelman]

Nah. I'm a bit of a doomer because of the shame and embarrassment regarding my home state (now 60% Trump on forecasting sites), however nationally even if Biden doesn't get the landslide he deserves he's easily going to regain the Blue Wall and AZ.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If he wins this time around, we ought to do away with polling.

[Figueira]

It's telling that the only argument for Trump being able to win is "Anything can happen".

He can win, and I'm the opposite of complacent, but there's no particular reason to expect him to win.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Obviously not. He’ll be lucky if he doesn’t get crushed.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yes. Donald Trump will win the title of One-Term-Prez.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I sure hope so and I'm more confident now than was all year long.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

He's already won. Done during one term more then Obama during 2!

- Crushed ISIS, Hillary and other War Criminals.
- 6 to 3 Supreme Court.
- Taught China the lesson.
- No new Wars.
- Owned the libs.
- Done most for Blacks, perhaps, with exception of good old Abe (First Step Act!!!)
- Brought back Christmas.


It's time to go home and rest.

[It’s so Joever]

I sure hope so and I'm more confident now than was all year long.

?
I think Trump will win as well, but you can’t really be more confident about his chances than back in late January when he was getting a trade-deal signed and impeachment was blowing up in our faces (thanks GOP hacks)
I would argue he has always been in a good position and we are just now understanding it, but I doubt he is doing better than he would have been doing pre-Covid.

[Stuart98]

He's going to win. There's clearly about a 10 point error in the polls in his favor. He will keep the 2016 map and add NV and MN.

My sarcasm detector is failing me here.

In case this somehow isn't sarcasm: In the modern history of election polling there has only been a national polling error of that size once at 6 days out from the election, in 1980. Even in that year, the polling shifted pretty clearly in Reagan's direction in the handful of days remaining, as people made up their minds after the unusually late first-and-only presidential debate of that cycle, which had only occurred on October 28th and which pretty much everyone considers to have been a decisive debate victory for Reagan. Unless you are counting on some earth-shattering event in the next five days (perhaps even literally Earth shattering, like all of coastal California falling into the sea) causing a drastic shift in the race, please, explain how you think there will be a polling miss even worse than the final miss for that year.

Man I am so tired of responding to the bullcrap this year.

Just a week from finding out!

Bad troll, ignored.

[Fusternino]

He's going to win. There's clearly about a 10 point error in the polls in his favor. He will keep the 2016 map and add NV and MN.

My sarcasm detector is failing me here.

In case this somehow isn't sarcasm: In the modern history of election polling there has only been a national polling error of that size once at 6 days out from the election, in 1980. Even in that year, the polling shifted pretty clearly in Reagan's direction in the handful of days remaining, as people made up their minds after the unusually late first-and-only presidential debate of that cycle, which had only occurred on October 28th and which pretty much everyone considers to have been a decisive debate victory for Reagan. Unless you are counting on some earth-shattering event in the next five days (perhaps even literally Earth shattering, like all of coastal California falling into the sea) causing a drastic shift in the race, please, explain how you think there will be a polling miss even worse than the final miss for that year.

Man I am so tired of responding to the bullcrap this year.

Just a week from finding out!

Bad troll, ignored.

Don't worry, you'll be forgiven!

[Ljube]

He's already won. Done during one term more then Obama during 2!

- Crushed ISIS, Hillary and other War Criminals.
- 6 to 3 Supreme Court.
- Taught China the lesson.
- No new Wars.
- Owned the libs.
- Done most for Blacks, perhaps, with exception of good old Abe (First Step Act!!!)
- Brought back Christmas.


It's time to go home and rest.

Biden is trying to cancel Christmas.

[CookieDamage]

He's already won. Done during one term more then Obama during 2!

- Crushed ISIS, Hillary and other War Criminals.
- 6 to 3 Supreme Court.
- Taught China the lesson.
- No new Wars.
- Owned the libs.
- Done most for Blacks, perhaps, with exception of good old Abe (First Step Act!!!)
- Brought back Christmas.


It's time to go home and rest.

Biden is trying to cancel Christmas.

Good. Just one year can we get a break from Christmas music? Please.

[Person Man]

He's already won. Done during one term more then Obama during 2!

- Crushed ISIS, Hillary and other War Criminals.
- 6 to 3 Supreme Court.
- Taught China the lesson.
- No new Wars.
- Owned the libs.
- Done most for Blacks, perhaps, with exception of good old Abe (First Step Act!!!)
- Brought back Christmas.


It's time to go home and rest.

Biden is trying to cancel Christmas.

So it really was about Hillary and Abortion this entire time?

[Canis]

In my opinion I think Biden's got this in the bag Im a little worried about the tightening in AZ and PA but I think Biden will still carry those 2 states Trump has pretty much run out of time essentially half the electorate has already voted and theirs not enough undecideds to flip the election. Trump still has a chance but to say his chance is the same as it was in 2016 is completely disingenuous the circumstances are completely different Trump has never gotten the lead in the average this year. in 2016 it was back and forth of leads in the polls and the race massively tighteninged after the comey letter. Trump can win this but it would be the upset of the century based of polling data and demographics. Surprisingly most people I talk to seem to think Trumps gonna pull it off again. I give Biden like a 90% chance of winning the election which still means in 1/10 times Trump wins it.

[MABA 2020]

No he's going to lose convincingly, I've been hesitant to call it until now but there's less than a week remaining. Barring some major shenanigans he's finished.

[IntelligenceWins]

I sure hope so and I'm more confident now than was all year long.

Make America Great Again, Again!