Who will win? megathread

[Meclazine for Israel]

"On the surface, the polls, the economy and the state of America's coronavirus outbreak all point to a defeat for Donald Trump.

But this is not a year when the surface is a solid reflection of all the unknown factors swirling beneath.

If there's one thing we've learned watching politics in 2020, it's to expect the unexpected."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-29/is-donald-trump-going-to-win-the-2020-election-in-november/12818368


We'll know in less than a week if Donald Trump will serve a second term.(ABC News: Niall Lenihan)

[Bootes Void]

No I doubt it

[MR DARK BRANDON]

No

[7,052,770]

All signs point to Biden.

[It’s so Joever]

Lean yes.
He is favored for sure.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Lean yes.
He is favored for sure.

WHY?
HOW?

Is it really too much to ask you to back up this incessant claim with actual data?

[Ferguson97]

Not if every vote is counted.

[EJ24]

I just really, really doubt it.

He has some definite advantages, the incumbent is normally favored. But Trump is not a normal President, and therefore he isn't. Anyone pretending he's "secretly" popular and every single poll is just wildly off by large margins I think can be safely dismissed.

Will he outperform his polls in some key states? Maybe.

Will he outperform his 2016 performance? Very highly doubt this, because Joe isn't Hillary and the fundamentals of this race don't favor Donald this time. The "October Surprise" of Hunter Biden didn't move the needle, and frankly, neither did anything Trump tried to hit him with.

Trump was very successful in portraying Hillary as the out-of-touch establishment four years ago, so people took a chance on him. Many people believed he was a loudmouth, but would grow into the job and "pivot" to being a mature statesman at some point, which never happened. I think a lot of those people have become jaded towards him.

Also, I think the special elections we saw Democrats win in 2017, 2018, and 2019 all point to something: an extremely energized Democratic base. They are ideologically diverse, some Democratic socialists, some progressives, some center-left liberals, moderates, even some former moderate Republicans. But they are all united around one thing this time, defeating Trump. And I think that's something we did NOT see in 2016.

[It’s so Joever]

Lean yes.
He is favored for sure.

WHY?
HOW?

Is it really too much to ask you to back up this incessant claim with actual data?

Early Vote data in Florida is the key.
We are seeing the Dem lead shrink rapidly. Keep in mind this is despite the fact that Early voting has been far more politicized.
It just appears that the GOP is very motivated at this point, and this is despite the partisan divide over early voting.

[Buzz]

Maybe

[Pyro]

I cannot imagine Trump will win if this is a fair election, but I suppose anything can happen.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Lean yes.
He is favored for sure.

WHY?
HOW?

Is it really too much to ask you to back up this incessant claim with actual data?

Early Vote data in Florida is the key.
We are seeing the Dem lead shrink rapidly. Keep in mind this is despite the fact that Early voting has been far more politicized.
It just appears that the GOP is very motivated at this point, and this is despite the partisan divide over early voting.

I can’t wait until Biden wins and you shut up with your dooming.

[Hammy]

Lean yes.
He is favored for sure.

WHY?
HOW?

Is it really too much to ask you to back up this incessant claim with actual data?

Early Vote data in Florida is the key.
We are seeing the Dem lead shrink rapidly. Keep in mind this is despite the fact that Early voting has been far more politicized.
It just appears that the GOP is very motivated at this point, and this is despite the partisan divide over early voting.

Dems don't normally lead in Florida's vote in the first place

How many times must this be said? And what does that even have to do with Michigan?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Lean yes.
He is favored for sure.

WHY?
HOW?

Is it really too much to ask you to back up this incessant claim with actual data?

Early Vote data in Florida is the key.
We are seeing the Dem lead shrink rapidly. Keep in mind this is despite the fact that Early voting has been far more politicized.
It just appears that the GOP is very motivated at this point, and this is despite the partisan divide over early voting.

Total turnout among Democrats is even higher though. And a win in Florida just requires parity between the two parties. Everybody knows the FLGOP always has insane turnout. Plus Florida isn't part of the path to 270 and every other state is mildly to extremely Democratic. Just look at Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin. Early voting overwhelmingly favors the Democrats, is sky-high, and that's a Biden win automatically. Just look at Georgia and Texas--which despite how unbelievable it may seem--actual turnout data clearly gives Democrats an edge. There just isn't any interpretation of the data we currently have which can reasonably conclude that Trump is actually favored.

[forza nocta]

Wait 5 days and you’ll have your answer

[Rand]

It’s 2020 and there’s gonna be a full moon on Halloween. If Trump wins, it might have something to do with that.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Well, his closing campaign message is that the pandemic isn't a big deal, meanwhile daily case and hospitalization numbers are spiking upward yet again due to his catastrophic failures.

Certainly doesn't seem like a candidate who is likely to win.



Strong recommendation for anyone who needs a reality check right now: Go watch an evening national news program every night this week and see if you can find even one thing during the entire program that is likely to persuade any remaining undecided voters to support Trump. You're not likely to find it.

[Alben Barkley]

Lean yes.
He is favored for sure.

You're entitled to your own opinion (however dumb it may be).

You're not entitled to your own facts.

And you cross that line when you make a claim like someone is "favored." That's something that's quantifiable. Under absolutely no reasonable definition of the term is Donald Trump "favored" to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anything is possible, but his chances at low double digits at best

[Stuart98]

no lol

[Alben Barkley]

Lean yes.
He is favored for sure.

WHY?
HOW?

Is it really too much to ask you to back up this incessant claim with actual data?

Early Vote data in Florida is the key.
We are seeing the Dem lead shrink rapidly. Keep in mind this is despite the fact that Early voting has been far more politicized.
It just appears that the GOP is very motivated at this point, and this is despite the partisan divide over early voting.

At a certain point, it stops becoming mere ignorance and transforms into WILLFUL ignorance, i.e. stupidity.

You've been told over and over again why this is BS. It has been clearly and painstakingly explained to you repeatedly. You never have had any sort of rebuttal, because of course there isn't one. You never have been able to explain why even if what you think about Florida is true, your conclusion that Trump will win by eking out Michigan despite losing Wisconsin and Pennsylvania logically follows from that premise. You just keep repeating these things over and over again with absolutely nothing to back them up, spitting in the face of reason and flipping off everyone who tries to talk sense to you. It's like trying to reason with the world's most stubborn concrete wall.

Your act has grown beyond tiresome. It's not funny anymore, it's just f--king stupid and annoying, and I can't wait until you are humiliated beyond belief on election night.

[Fusternino]

He's going to win. There's clearly about a 10 point error in the polls in his favor. He will keep the 2016 map and add NV and MN.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I have Biden at a floor of 269 EVs, so no.

[TML]

About as likely as a PGA player getting a bogey.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

He's going to win. There's clearly about a 10 point error in the polls in his favor. He will keep the 2016 map and add NV and MN.

My sarcasm detector is failing me here.

In case this somehow isn't sarcasm: In the modern history of election polling there has only been a national polling error of that size once at 6 days out from the election, in 1980. Even in that year, the polling shifted pretty clearly in Reagan's direction in the handful of days remaining, as people made up their minds after the unusually late first-and-only presidential debate of that cycle, which had only occurred on October 28th and which pretty much everyone considers to have been a decisive debate victory for Reagan. Unless you are counting on some earth-shattering event in the next five days (perhaps even literally Earth shattering, like all of coastal California falling into the sea) causing a drastic shift in the race, please, explain how you think there will be a polling miss even worse than the final miss for that year.

Man I am so tired of responding to the bullcrap this year.