PA - Franklin & Marshall College: Biden 6%
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Author Topic: PA - Franklin & Marshall College: Biden 6%  (Read 1553 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 28, 2020, 07:40:11 PM »
https://triblive.com/news/biden-lead-holds-steady-at-6-points-in-latest-franklin-marshall-college-poll/

October 19-25
558 likely voters
MoE: 5%
Changes with September 14-20

Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 44% (+2)
Third party candidate/undecided 5%
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 07:40:34 PM »
A bit on the lower end but I'll take it
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 07:41:59 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on October 28, 2020, 07:40:34 PM
A bit on the lower end but I'll take it

Not really, 538 average is Biden +5.2, plus he’s at 50 here. Good poll
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 07:42:14 PM »
PA will be mid-single digits. MI and WI high single to low double digits. Just like — you guessed it — 2012!
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Buzz
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2020, 07:43:55 PM »
51-47 final result.  Been written in the stars for a while now.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2020, 07:44:27 PM »
Pretty good. Not quite as solid as MI and WI are looking, but solid enough that I'm comfortable considering it, and the election, Likely Biden.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2020, 07:44:59 PM »
Down for odd one out? Tongue

PA-F&M: Biden +6
MN-SurveyUSA: Biden +5
WI-Marquette: Biden +5
IA-RABA: Biden +4
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 07:45:12 PM »
So the moderate lead in PA is holding and Georgia is starting to emerge as PA insurance for Biden.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2020, 07:45:43 PM »
Quote from: Elastic Iowan Going Nuclear on Joni on October 28, 2020, 07:44:59 PM
Down for odd one out? Tongue

PA-F&M: Biden +6
MN-SurveyUSA: Biden +5
WI-Marquette: Biden +5
IA-RABA: Biden +4

Ehhh Iowa polls have a history of severely overestimating Dems.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 07:47:04 PM »
There's that 6% number again. It seems like a pretty reasonable result to me.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 07:47:41 PM »
About what I expected. Biden will win Pennsylvania by 5-6%.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 07:48:01 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 28, 2020, 07:45:43 PM
Quote from: Elastic Iowan Going Nuclear on Joni on October 28, 2020, 07:44:59 PM
Down for odd one out? Tongue

PA-F&M: Biden +6
MN-SurveyUSA: Biden +5
WI-Marquette: Biden +5
IA-RABA: Biden +4

Ehhh Iowa polls have a history of severely overestimating Dems.

Not really. Certainly didn’t in 2012, underestimated Obama by a few points.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 07:50:04 PM »
Wish it was better, but I’ll take it.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2020, 07:50:48 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 28, 2020, 07:45:43 PM
Ehhh Iowa polls have a history of severely overestimating Dems.

I know, I just found the overreaction to that poll amusing. The WI/PA/MN numbers are perfectly believable and in line with where I’m expecting the national PV to end up (Biden +8-9), with Biden flipping AZ/NE-02/WI/MI/PA/FL/GA. NC and TX are pure Toss-ups, OH tilt R, IA lean R.
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philly09
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2020, 08:06:59 PM »
Why isn't this poll getting 3 pages?
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forza nocta
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2020, 08:32:18 PM »
Quote from: Elastic Iowan Going Nuclear on Joni on October 28, 2020, 07:50:48 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 28, 2020, 07:45:43 PM
Ehhh Iowa polls have a history of severely overestimating Dems.

I know, I just found the overreaction to that poll amusing. The WI/PA/MN numbers are perfectly believable and in line with where I’m expecting the national PV to end up (Biden +8-9), with Biden flipping AZ/NE-02/WI/MI/PA/FL/GA. NC and TX are pure Toss-ups, OH tilt R, IA lean R.

But thats not the only Iowa poll recently with Biden tied or up. Monmouth and NYT had Biden +3, Q-Pac Biden +5, Civiqs Biden +1, Emerson, YouGov, RMG tied. That poll wasn’t an outlier at all.
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Rand
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2020, 08:40:05 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 28, 2020, 08:06:59 PM
Why isn't this poll getting 3 pages?

We’re burnt the f**k out from today’s glorious onslaught of polls.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2020, 08:40:25 PM »
New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Franklin and Marshall College on 2020-10-25

Summary: D: 50%, R: 44%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2020, 08:44:57 PM »
Quote from: forza nocta on October 28, 2020, 08:32:18 PM
Quote from: Elastic Iowan Going Nuclear on Joni on October 28, 2020, 07:50:48 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 28, 2020, 07:45:43 PM
Ehhh Iowa polls have a history of severely overestimating Dems.

I know, I just found the overreaction to that poll amusing. The WI/PA/MN numbers are perfectly believable and in line with where I’m expecting the national PV to end up (Biden +8-9), with Biden flipping AZ/NE-02/WI/MI/PA/FL/GA. NC and TX are pure Toss-ups, OH tilt R, IA lean R.

But thats not the only Iowa poll recently with Biden tied or up. Monmouth and NYT had Biden +3, Q-Pac Biden +5, Civiqs Biden +1, Emerson, YouGov, RMG tied. That poll wasn’t an outlier at all.

PA at +6 Biden is accurate if it's a +9 Biden win or whatever.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2020, 08:50:39 PM »
Fuller release: https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/730787120293897090-f-m-poll-release-october-2020.pdf

Jorgensen 2%
Prefer not to answer 1%
Some other candidate 0%
Aren't sure how would vote 3%
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gf20202
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2020, 09:40:49 PM »
F&M had it as plus 11 Clinton in 2016 so this isn't as heartening as normally it would be.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2020, 09:43:28 PM »
Quote from: gf20202 on October 28, 2020, 09:40:49 PM
F&M had it as plus 11 Clinton in 2016 so this isn't as heartening as normally it would be.

We just have to trust pollsters have made enough adjustments to prevent a repeat of 2016. It seems like they have.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2020, 05:32:29 AM »
Good pollsters at a 6-8pt average for Biden still in PA.
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philly09
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2020, 05:45:35 AM »
About 66% of the Philly mail-in vote is in.
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