Redistricting Competition?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I...actually feel optimistic about NC. I went for 11-3 and I think it'll hold, although what I did with the Triad might make things close.

[OBD]

I...actually feel optimistic about NC. I went for 11-3 and I think it'll hold, although what I did with the Triad might make things close.

Hmm - well with the pro-Biden swing, you should be fine.

I won't consider my map for the contest, but I went for an 11-2 (think you meant 10-3) and I think it could hold. I think lfromnj did that as well, so we'll see what happens.

[OBD]

Hmm, I'm hearing reports that precinct-level results will be messed up by VBM, so it's very possible that this competition will not have a solid conclusion (in addition to DRA being permanently clucked for the next 4 years). Yikes.

[It’s so Joever]

Huh...looking back at my TX map I may actually have a shot.
I didn’t cut up the RGV too much both because my gut said there was going to be a Hispanic swing, and because I wanted to keep a degree of compactness so I had more room to cut up DFW.

My border districts were (from East to West)
Clinton+11.6
Clinton+29.1
Clinton+5.1 (and this one has Zapata LOL)
Clinton+18.7
Clinton+40.4 (I didn’t break up El Paso)

It looks like I went for 28 Biden districts because I played it safe(ish)
Hopefully my opponents tried to Max out the RGV.

My NC map also was a 2-11 attempt but I doubt it will hold because of the Robeson area swing.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Huh...looking back at my TX map I may actually have a shot.
I didn’t cut up the RGV too much both because my gut said there was going to be a Hispanic swing, and because I wanted to keep a degree of compactness so I had more room to cut up DFW.

My border districts were (from East to West)
Clinton+11.6
Clinton+29.1
Clinton+5.1 (and this one has Zapata LOL)
Clinton+18.7
Clinton+40.4 (I didn’t break up El Paso)

It looks like I went for 28 Biden districts because I played it safe(ish)
Hopefully my opponents tried to Max out the RGV.

My NC map also was a 2-11 attempt but I doubt it will hold because of the Robeson area swing.

Wild guess about your Rio Grande districts without even seeing them:

1st probably flipped
2nd still stands
3rd got incinerated and I'd think it was a bad idea even without hindsight
4th is dangerously close
5th is obviously still very safe

[S019ian Liberal]

One strategy was to make all your districts as similar as possible in terms of PVI leaning. That way, if Biden loses TX then sure he will win virtually next to nothing (none of your districts, of course)

But on the off-chance that he overperforms his polling, you are pretty much guaranteed to win the prize.

[OBD]

Do y'all remember this?

As NC 2020 results are now out, I'll try to compute winners for that part of the competition.

[OBD]

Alright, folks, here's the results for North Carolina!

District Results
Forumlurker: Biden 9, Trump 4
Blairite: Biden 9, Trump 4
Tack50: Biden 9, Trump 4
Lfromnj: Biden 8, Trump 5
S019: Biden 8, Trump 5

This is pretty clear cut - there's a three-way tie with 9 Biden districts, Lfromnj and S019 are eliminated. Additionally, both of their maps had contiguity issues on the coast (I did say districts had to be contiguous by land or bridge), so they would have been eliminated anyway.

Contiguity, Compactness, and County Splitting
Forumlurker: Contiguous, 30 (Compactness 30, County Splitting 30)
Blairite: Contiguous, 29.5 (Compactness 29, County Splitting 30)
Tack50: Contiguous, 29.5 (Compactness 31, County Splitting 28)

A note on this section - Blairite and Tack50 technically broke the Compactness/County Splitting rule, but under further investigation they actually satisfied the requirements on the 2010's precincts. Definitely not fair to disqualify them for that here.

So, I went back to the original maps (2010 precincts) to average the scores, and these were the results. Congrats, Tack!

Tack50 - 31.5
Forumlurker - 31
Blairite - 31

If this was tied as well, the competition would have gone to 'partisan metrics' - which in retrospect was a pretty ill-defined term. If this was the case, I likely would have gone off which map had the closest Republican win (and thus was closest to having 10 Biden seats). This map is Forumlurker's - his 9th District was Trump+0.8, narrowly edging Blairite's Trump+0.9 8th District. Tack's 1st District, unfortunately, was Trump+2.1, which would have put him in third here.

[OBD]

Can you post all of our maps?

Your names are linked to your maps, I believe.

[S019]

TX has 2020 data now, so bump