Which states will be called immediately upon closing?

[S019ian Liberal]

-snip-
EDIT: AZ was corrected.

Good question! Here's mine, as I imagine the map will look quite similar to 2016's give or take a few slow-counting new battleground states:

[S019ian Liberal]

South Carolina is typically too early to call at poll closing.

Why is that, lack of exit polling?

Usually they have to be 20+ margin, sometimes even above 25-35 percent in the polls for networks to call immediately based solely off early data or initial returns and otherwise so.

[S019ian Liberal]

South Carolina is typically too early to call at poll closing.

Why is that, lack of exit polling?

It may have to do with the fact that dem areas report first,  so always looks like dems have a huge lead in the beginning.  So it could be because it's just on the cusp of not being a big enough margin to call based on exit polls alone, so they need to wait for GOP areas so their model has more complete info.

Another possibility is that they definitely could call it at poll close if they wanted, but don't because they think it'll look weird to people if the dem is up but they call the state for the GOP. That would be a dumb reason,  if so. I think it's probably the first reason,  instead.

no, in the past most networks as a matter of the fact have called races for one candidate even while another was up. for instance MS for trump in 2016 even though clinton was still leading by like 90 something there (only under 1% votes in so far of course, however)

[S019ian Liberal]

South Carolina is typically too early to call at poll closing.

Why is that, lack of exit polling?

It may have to do with the fact that dem areas report first,  so always looks like dems have a huge lead in the beginning.  So it could be because it's just on the cusp of not being a big enough margin to call based on exit polls alone, so they need to wait for GOP areas so their model has more complete info.

Another possibility is that they definitely could call it at poll close if they wanted, but don't because they think it'll look weird to people if the dem is up but they call the state for the GOP. That would be a dumb reason,  if so. I think it's probably the first reason,  instead.

no, in the past most networks as a matter of the fact have called races for one candidate even while another was up. for instance MS for trump in 2016 even though clinton was still leading by like 90 something there (only under 1% votes in so far of course, however)

Yeah, makes sense.  Must be that it's just a touch too close to call based on exit polling alone. (not sure what their threshold is, and some networks may have different thresholds.  Some might require them to be up 10 in the exits, some might call it if they're up at least 15, etc.)

Yes well I mean of course, but as I had said earlier:

South Carolina is typically too early to call at poll closing.

Why is that, lack of exit polling?

Usually they have to be 20+ margin, sometimes even above 25-35 percent in the polls for networks to call immediately based solely off early data or initial returns and otherwise so.

[S019ian Liberal]

South Carolina is typically too early to call at poll closing.

Why is that, lack of exit polling?

It may have to do with the fact that dem areas report first,  so always looks like dems have a huge lead in the beginning.  So it could be because it's just on the cusp of not being a big enough margin to call based on exit polls alone, so they need to wait for GOP areas so their model has more complete info.

Another possibility is that they definitely could call it at poll close if they wanted, but don't because they think it'll look weird to people if the dem is up but they call the state for the GOP. That would be a dumb reason,  if so. I think it's probably the first reason,  instead.

no, in the past most networks as a matter of the fact have called races for one candidate even while another was up. for instance MS for trump in 2016 even though clinton was still leading by like 90 something there (only under 1% votes in so far of course, however)

Yeah, makes sense.  Must be that it's just a touch too close to call based on exit polling alone. (not sure what their threshold is, and some networks may have different thresholds.  Some might require them to be up 10 in the exits, some might call it if they're up at least 15, etc.)

Yes well I mean of course, but as I had said earlier:

South Carolina is typically too early to call at poll closing.

Why is that, lack of exit polling?

Usually they have to be 20+ margin, sometimes even above 25-35 percent in the polls for networks to call immediately based solely off early data or initial returns and otherwise so.

The threshold isn't 20 plus points,  I don't think.  Lots of states are instantly called with a margin between 10 and 20 points.  Michigan was called instantly in 2012 when Obama won by 9.5%, but I think they had split poll closing times.

Meh it's never consistent from state to state. Between then I think like I had said earlier they can sometimes want a predicted margin of above 15% all the way up to 20 points although even that's something not enough -- see Utah initial returns in 2016. And yeah but that was 2012, however still they invented Michigan to be above 10 which 9.5 was very close to.