Which states will be called immediately upon closing?
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  Which states will be called immediately upon closing?
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Author Topic: Which states will be called immediately upon closing?  (Read 1884 times)
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exnaderite
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« on: October 28, 2020, 05:26:25 PM »
« edited: October 28, 2020, 05:35:03 PM by Make Politics Boring Again »

My map:


EDIT: AZ was corrected.
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big data boi
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 05:29:52 PM »

Arizona?
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 05:29:56 PM »


Arizona???
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 05:31:17 PM »

Y Arizona???
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xavier110
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2020, 05:32:05 PM »

If anything the first reported numbers from AZ (the early vote) is going to be lean D and the reverse of 2018. Regardless of who wins ultimately.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2020, 05:35:44 PM »

Swap Indiana and Arizona and I'll mostly agree with it.

Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, and ME-AL I don't think will be called immediately after closing, but shouldn't take as much time to be called this time around as it did in 2016.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2020, 05:40:48 PM »

https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2AvQ
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 05:41:41 PM »

For Biden: CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
For Trump: AL, AR, ID, IN, KY, LA, MS, MO, NE (minus NE-01 and NE-02), ND, OK, SD, TN, WV, WY
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2020, 05:46:59 PM »

For Biden: CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
For Trump: AL, AR, ID, IN, KY, LA, MS, MO, NE (minus NE-01 and NE-02), ND, OK, SD, TN, WV, WY

NE-01 isn't getting called on close but IN, MS, and MO are? Doubt it. All of those have the potential to be within single digits, likely closer than NE-01 regardless.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 05:49:50 PM »


This + IN and KS for Trump. Remember that the state will be counting votes in both cases for about an hour before networks can make projections, which will allow networks to get a grip on turnout and swings and project forward what the result may be.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 06:02:34 PM »

I don't see Virginia getting called given that the polls close there so early in the night. I suspect the networks will be more cautious than usual about trusting the exit polls until they have enough data in to know if they are seeing the electorate correctly, and the same probably applies to Maine. As long as they do look mostly correct though, I think New Mexico and Colorado are reasonable to get called at poll close.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 06:06:46 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 06:16:57 PM by Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »

Swap Indiana and Arizona and I'll mostly agree with it.

Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, and ME-AL I don't think will be called immediately after closing, but shouldn't take as much time to be called this time around as it did in 2016.

I feel the networks will be stuck in "Battleground 2016" mode and wait 5-20 minutes after closure to call those states
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 06:14:05 PM »

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Spark
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2020, 06:19:37 PM »

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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2020, 06:53:10 PM »


Not New Hampshire, remember how close it was in 2016. I expect the media to be more cautious about it.
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redjohn
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2020, 07:47:12 PM »



With the possible addition of KS+SC being called for Trump, and VA+ME+NH being called for Biden.
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philly09
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2020, 08:14:30 PM »

Possibly Pennsylvania.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2020, 08:40:18 PM »


South Carolina is typically too early to call at poll closing.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2020, 08:40:45 PM »

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2020, 08:48:04 PM »

Mine:




a technicality: Michigan polls close at 8PM local time, with the state's vote totals not being announced until four electorally-small counties (Gogebic, Iron, Dickinson, and Menominee) within the Central Time Zone, have closed their voting one hour later than the rest of the state. So about an hour of counting of votes is completed , which leaves few votes outside of Wayne County and the aforesead votes from the counties on the Wisconsin border uncounted.  
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S019ian Liberal
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2020, 03:00:37 AM »


Good question! Here's mine, as I imagine the map will look quite similar to 2016's give or take a few slow-counting new battleground states:

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Hammy
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2020, 03:05:26 AM »


Why is that, lack of exit polling?
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Stuart98
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2020, 03:14:31 AM »



It's gonna be a long night for Republicans.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2020, 07:39:29 AM »


It may have to do with the fact that dem areas report first,  so always looks like dems have a huge lead in the beginning.  So it could be because it's just on the cusp of not being a big enough margin to call based on exit polls alone, so they need to wait for GOP areas so their model has more complete info.

Another possibility is that they definitely could call it at poll close if they wanted, but don't because they think it'll look weird to people if the dem is up but they call the state for the GOP. That would be a dumb reason,  if so. I think it's probably the first reason,  instead.
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S019ian Liberal
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2020, 09:43:24 PM »


Usually they have to be 20+ margin, sometimes even above 25-35 percent in the polls for networks to call immediately based solely off early data or initial returns and otherwise so.
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