Trump wins PA, Biden wins AZ, Trump still loses?

[win win]

So if Trump doesn't win any MI WI and MN, Biden carries AZ, he will still lose ME-2 correct? 270-268 Biden. So he can win PA and it wont matter.

If he wins ME-2 and its 269-269 who wins?

[Beet]

If its 269-269 whoever wins the most House delegations in this election wins. I believe the Republicans are up 1 state, so the Democrats must flip one House delegation. Not sure which one that would be.

[AGA]

Trump is more likely to lose NE-2 than ME-2. Trump needs both to keep it to a tie.

[Sbane]

Everyone thinks PA is the tipping point state, but Biden likely gets to 270 before it. I think AZ is most likely to be the tipping point.

[charcuterie]

Trump doesn't lose unless NE-2 is lost to him too - and I think it's far gone for him, so I say yes to him losing if AZ goes non-Atlas blue and Biden nets WI/MI/MN.

[PeteB]

Trump need both PA and another state (likely AZ or NV) to win.  But if Biden wins PA, it's all over.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Everyone thinks PA is the tipping point state, but Biden likely gets to 270 before it. I think AZ is most likely to be the tipping point.

I think, by margin, the tipping point state is likely to be Pennsylvania, but because of slowness with the ballot counts, Biden will have already been the projected winner by the time it is called. Aside from the obvious, MI/WI/AZ/1EV ME and NE seats, Biden is still marginally more likely than not to win North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia. And honestly it’s more likely that Biden takes Texas than Trump holds PA at this point.

[S019ian Liberal]

So if Trump doesn't win any MI WI and MN, Biden carries AZ, he will still lose ME-2 correct? 270-268 Biden. So he can win PA and it wont matter.

If he wins ME-2 and its 269-269 who wins?

I think you meant NE-2.

Trump is more likely to lose NE-2 than ME-2. Trump needs both to keep it to a tie.

Well said, this dude's guy!

Trump doesn't lose unless NE-2 is lost to him too - and I think it's far gone for him, so I say yes to him losing if AZ goes non-Atlas blue and Biden nets WI/MI/MN.

But I think, assuming they fall in order as they already do, then he actually doesn't even need Minnesota -- can just win NV, AZ and he's on the right track toward victory already! Throw in a stunner for NC too while you're at it. Lol

Everyone thinks PA is the tipping point state, but Biden likely gets to 270 before it. I think AZ is most likely to be the tipping point.

[S019ian Liberal]

I think, by margin, the tipping point state is likely to be Pennsylvania, but because of slowness with the ballot counts, Biden will have already been the projected winner by the time it is called. Aside from the obvious, MI/WI/AZ/1EV ME and NE seats, Biden is still marginally more likely than not to win North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia. And honestly it’s more likely that Biden takes Texas than Trump holds PA at this point.

[Adam Griffin]

If it's an EC tie, Trump wins.

[MillennialModerate]

I’ve said for three months and mark it down:

Biden does better in ME02 than NE02

[Crumpets]

Last-minute bold prediction: NE-2 will be the tipping point "state."

[Former President tack50]

If its 269-269 whoever wins the most House delegations in this election wins. I believe the Republicans are up 1 state, so the Democrats must flip one House delegation. Not sure which one that would be.

Looking at the competitive House seats, some possibilities for Dems to flip 1 state delegation and deny Republicans the majority would be:

Alaska: AK-AL (lean R)
Florida: Flip at least one of FL-15 (lean R), FL-16 or FL-18 (Likely R); as well as successfully defend FL-26 (Lean D) and FL-27 (likely D)
Kansas: KS-02 (Likely R)
Montana: MT-AL (Lean R)
North Carolina: Flip at least 2/3 between NC-08, NC-11 (both Lean R) and NC-09 (Likely R)
Texas: Hold everything they have and flip at least 5/9 of the following seats: TX-23 (Lean D), TX-21, TX-22 (Tossup); TX-03, TX-10 (Lean R); TX-02, TX-06, TX-25, TX-31 (Likely R)



They also need to successfully play defense on the following competitive delegations:

Arizona: Defend AZ-01 (Likely D)
Iowa: Defend at least 1 of the following 3 seats: IA-01, IA-02, IA-03 (all Lean D)
Michigan: Defend at least 1 of the following 2 seats: MI-08, MI-11 (Likely D)
Minnesota: Defend MN-02 (Likely D)
Nevada: Defend at least one between NV-03 (Lean D) and NV-04 (Likely D)
New Hampshire: Defend at least one of the 2 seats (both Likely D)
Pennsylvania: Successfully defend all of PA-7, PA-08 and PA-17 (all Likely D). Or compensate the loss in any of these by flipping any of PA-01 (Lean R), PA-10 (Tossup) or PA-16 (Likely R)
Virginia: Defend at least one of the following 2 seats: VA-02, VA-07 (both Lean D)

[S019ian Liberal]

Last-minute bold prediction: NE-2 will be the tipping point "state."

it would have to get and share at least half of that dubious distinction with somebody else though, however.