Strong Lean D, now closer to Likely than Tilt.
That seems like jumping the gun a little bit to me, especially in a state where polling is iffy at best
Maybe, but Ernst's numbers have been REALLY underwhelming basically the whole time. If this is the best she can do this close to the election? I have a hard time seeing her winning. Never mind the very real possibility that the COVID surge in Iowa is hurting both Trump and downballot Rs. There seems to be some polling evidence lately that's happening in IA and WI.
Her numbers are certainly underwhelming, and I could see the case for a Lean D IA-Sen, but towards the weaker end of lean D. IA could go to Biden, and polls currently show it as a tossup on the Presidential level, though remember IA polling is notorious for underestimating Rs, even when they underperform across the board, simillar to NV. I also think if we're seeing record breaking turnout in the state of IA, it creates more potential for the polls to be off even more. As for Ernst, she is underperforming what I expected, but Greenfield is only reaching 48% or so in the polling average in this state; all it takes is a normal IA polling error and the senate race converging with the Presidential race. In my book, this is pretty close to a true tossup, maybe with Greenfield as the slight favorite.
