IA-RABA: Greenfield +6

[Alben Barkley]

Strong Lean D, now closer to Likely than Tilt.

[Alben Barkley]

Strong Lean D, now closer to Likely than Tilt.

That seems like jumping the gun a little bit to me, especially in a state where polling is iffy at best

Maybe, but Ernst's numbers have been REALLY underwhelming basically the whole time. If this is the best she can do this close to the election? I have a hard time seeing her winning. Never mind the very real possibility that the COVID surge in Iowa is hurting both Trump and downballot Rs. There seems to be some polling evidence lately that's happening in IA and WI.

[Alben Barkley]

The gold standard has spoken.

PRES: Biden +4 (50-46) (you guys just didn’t get it, IA was never a Republican-leaning state)

Previous poll: Greenfield +12 (probably closer to the truth than this one)

Final 2016 poll: Trump +3 (actually it was pretty accurate but 105% of the undecideds broke for Trump)

Bye, felicia. Seat 48. I regret ever voting for you.

You would think after IceSpear did basically the exact same schtick you are doing leading up to KY-GOV 2019, only to be totally wrong and disappear from the forum in disgrace, people might be a little more hesitant about repeating his mistakes.

Guess not.

Also, not the only poll showing Ernst is in serious, serious trouble in this state. Just like with the presidency, high quality polling clearly and consistently shows a D lean here, unlike 2016 or 2014. Being willfully ignorant and selectively cherrypicking things to make your case does not make you smart.

And it's an objective fact that Iowa has not been a Republican-leaning state on the presidential level since 1988. As I said last night, it voted to the left of the nation in every single election from then until 2016. It was never logical to assume it would be impossible for its shift from 2012 to 2016 (which was not much bigger than the D shift from 2004 to 2008) to reverse at all.