IA-RABA: Greenfield +6
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  IA-RABA: Greenfield +6
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Author Topic: IA-RABA: Greenfield +6  (Read 1900 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: October 28, 2020, 04:10:28 PM »
« edited: October 28, 2020, 04:36:26 PM by Brittain33 »

RIP
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WD
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 04:11:21 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 04:15:23 PM by Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same »

Greenfield 51
Ernst 45

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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 04:11:56 PM »

Strong Lean D, now closer to Likely than Tilt.
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redjohn
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 04:12:03 PM »

Lean D. Waiting for the DMR poll this weekend to crush Ernst's Senate career.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2020, 04:13:56 PM »

Ernst surging into her political grave, more like. Big brain move for Trump to have pulled that stunt in Omaha.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2020, 04:15:51 PM »

Seat 51 for Dems, most probably.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2020, 04:17:59 PM »

This poll previously found Greenfield up 12, so while this is closer to being within the realm of reality, I'm still quite skeptical.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 04:25:54 PM »

This poll previously found Greenfield up 12, so while this is closer to being within the realm of reality, I'm still quite skeptical.

You keep saying this and D's are winning 3/4 Congressial districts,everyone of our House incumbents are leading Rs in Iowa

IA1,2,3 have 3DHouse incumbents that's why Iowa is a blue state
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2020, 04:28:41 PM »

I don't buy it, Tilt D, maybe tilt R.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 04:39:22 PM »

Strong Lean D, now closer to Likely than Tilt.

That seems like jumping the gun a little bit to me, especially in a state where polling is iffy at best
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 04:47:03 PM »

More believable than the one with Greenfield +12, but it'll be close.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 04:47:36 PM »

Joni Galaxy Brain Ernst
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 04:54:35 PM »

For WHO13
October 21-24
693 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with September 23-26

Greenfield 51% (n/c)
Ernst 45% (+6)
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2020, 05:43:55 PM »

Strong Lean D, now closer to Likely than Tilt.

That seems like jumping the gun a little bit to me, especially in a state where polling is iffy at best

Maybe, but Ernst's numbers have been REALLY underwhelming basically the whole time. If this is the best she can do this close to the election? I have a hard time seeing her winning. Never mind the very real possibility that the COVID surge in Iowa is hurting both Trump and downballot Rs. There seems to be some polling evidence lately that's happening in IA and WI.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2020, 06:06:47 PM »

The gold standard has spoken.

PRES: Biden +4 (50-46) (you guys just didnít get it, IA was never a Republican-leaning state)

Previous poll: Greenfield +12 (probably closer to the truth than this one)

Final 2016 poll: Trump +3 (actually it was pretty accurate but 105% of the undecideds broke for Trump)

Bye, felicia. Seat 48. I regret ever voting for you.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2020, 06:08:02 PM »

Purple heart  Soybeans
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2020, 06:46:00 PM »

This poll previously found Greenfield up 12, so while this is closer to being within the realm of reality, I'm still quite skeptical.

Agreed. I too am going to pin my expectations on that Selzer poll.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2020, 06:47:26 PM »

The gold standard has spoken.

PRES: Biden +4 (50-46) (you guys just didnít get it, IA was never a Republican-leaning state)

Previous poll: Greenfield +12 (probably closer to the truth than this one)

Final 2016 poll: Trump +3 (actually it was pretty accurate but 105% of the undecideds broke for Trump)

Bye, felicia. Seat 48. I regret ever voting for you.

You would think after IceSpear did basically the exact same schtick you are doing leading up to KY-GOV 2019, only to be totally wrong and disappear from the forum in disgrace, people might be a little more hesitant about repeating his mistakes.

Guess not.

Also, not the only poll showing Ernst is in serious, serious trouble in this state. Just like with the presidency, high quality polling clearly and consistently shows a D lean here, unlike 2016 or 2014. Being willfully ignorant and selectively cherrypicking things to make your case does not make you smart.

And it's an objective fact that Iowa has not been a Republican-leaning state on the presidential level since 1988. As I said last night, it voted to the left of the nation in every single election from then until 2016. It was never logical to assume it would be impossible for its shift from 2012 to 2016 (which was not much bigger than the D shift from 2004 to 2008) to reverse at all.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2020, 07:14:33 PM »

I don't buy it, Tilt D, maybe tilt R.

We as D's need to stop saying that a tight race is Likely R, in a wave Election, most of the undecided goes to challenger, like in 2016, and Trump isn't the outsider anymore
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2020, 08:14:46 PM »

If Greenfield is up 4 points or more in Selzerís poll, then I may get my hopes up here. Iíve been burned too many times this decade by poor Iowa polling to get my hopes up.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2020, 08:52:05 PM »

Strong Lean D, now closer to Likely than Tilt.

That seems like jumping the gun a little bit to me, especially in a state where polling is iffy at best

Maybe, but Ernst's numbers have been REALLY underwhelming basically the whole time. If this is the best she can do this close to the election? I have a hard time seeing her winning. Never mind the very real possibility that the COVID surge in Iowa is hurting both Trump and downballot Rs. There seems to be some polling evidence lately that's happening in IA and WI.

Her numbers are certainly underwhelming, and I could see the case for a Lean D IA-Sen, but towards the weaker end of lean D. IA could go to Biden, and polls currently show it as a tossup  on the Presidential level, though remember IA polling is notorious for underestimating Rs, even when they underperform across the board, simillar to NV. I also think if we're seeing record breaking turnout in the state of IA, it creates more potential for the polls to be off even more. As for Ernst, she is underperforming what I expected, but Greenfield is only reaching 48% or so in the polling average in this state; all it takes is a normal IA polling error and the senate race converging with the Presidential race. In my book, this is pretty close to a true tossup, maybe with Greenfield as the slight favorite.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2020, 09:39:50 PM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by RABA Research on 2020-10-24

Summary: D: 51%, R: 45%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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WD
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« Reply #22 on: December 07, 2020, 11:47:01 AM »

lol. They got the margin right, just had the wrong candidate.
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VAR
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« Reply #23 on: December 07, 2020, 11:58:25 AM »


Calling politicians names doesn't help your candidate win.  Tongue

The gold standard has spoken.

PRES: Biden +4 (50-46) (you guys just didnít get it, IA was never a Republican-leaning state)

Previous poll: Greenfield +12 (probably closer to the truth than this one)

Final 2016 poll: Trump +3 (actually it was pretty accurate but 105% of the undecideds broke for Trump)

Bye, felicia. Seat 48. I regret ever voting for you.

sToP sTrAwMaNnInG yOu rEpUbLiCaN hAcK tHiS rAcE iS LeAn D
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UncleSam
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« Reply #24 on: December 07, 2020, 06:49:28 PM »

Joni Ernst won a higher % of the vote (and by a larger margin) than Ben Ray Lujan in New Mexico.

Iowa is gone for Dems at the federal level until a new realignment hits or Ds win a gigantic landslide national victory.
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