Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +2 in AZ/FL
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  Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +2 in AZ/FL		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +2 in AZ/FL  (Read 1332 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: October 28, 2020, 03:18:46 PM »
Oct. 21-27

AZ:
Biden 48% (-1)
Trump 46% (n/c)

FL:
Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 47% (+1)

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/1288649-poll-trump-pulls-statistically-even-with-biden-in-florida-arizona-is-a-dead-heat--reutersipsos
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 03:20:04 PM »
Big beautiful polls.

It's hilarious that this is Trump's "best" poll of the day
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 03:20:28 PM »
Not good.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 03:20:57 PM »
Arizona polls have been all over the place, but this is one place I think we can get a good feel based on the early vote reported so far.

How many Florida +2's have we seen this week?
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2020, 03:24:28 PM »
I'll take it. Into the average.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2020, 03:25:17 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 28, 2020, 03:20:57 PM
Arizona polls have been all over the place, but this is one place I think we can get a good feel based on the early vote reported so far.

How many Florida +2's have we seen this week?

Florida feels like herding.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2020, 03:26:39 PM »
Weak sauce.

Could be worse, I guess, but +2 polls doesn't give me too much confidence going into election day.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 03:31:01 PM »
Likely D
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2020, 03:31:52 PM »
Ipsos is really trash.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 03:32:51 PM »
eww so weak, anyways gotta finish strong
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Figueira
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 03:35:23 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on October 28, 2020, 03:25:17 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 28, 2020, 03:20:57 PM
Arizona polls have been all over the place, but this is one place I think we can get a good feel based on the early vote reported so far.

How many Florida +2's have we seen this week?

Florida feels like herding.


Why would pollsters be herding in Florida but not in other states?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 03:36:54 PM »
It really tells you where the state of the race is where Biden leading by 2 points in FL and AZ is "good for Trump" lol
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 03:37:30 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on October 28, 2020, 03:35:23 PM
Quote from: BudgieForce on October 28, 2020, 03:25:17 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 28, 2020, 03:20:57 PM
Arizona polls have been all over the place, but this is one place I think we can get a good feel based on the early vote reported so far.

How many Florida +2's have we seen this week?

Florida feels like herding.


Why would pollsters be herding in Florida but not in other states?

Not sure but what is the statistical probability that 4 out of 6(?) polls get the same margin if not for herding.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2020, 04:50:48 PM »
Changes with Oct. 14-21

Quote from: VARepublican on October 28, 2020, 03:18:46 PM
Oct. 21-27

AZ:
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/topline_reuters_arizona_state_poll_w5_10_28_2020.pdf

714 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Biden 48% (-1)
Trump 46% (n/c)
Some other candidate 3% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 2% (n/c)

Five-way ballot:

Biden 47% (-3)
Trump 47% (+1)
Jorgensen 2% (+1)
Some other candidate 2% (n/c)
West 1% (+1)
Hawkins 0% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)

FL:
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/topline_reuters_florida_state_poll_w5_10_28_2020.pdf

704 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 47% (+1)
Some other candidate 3% (+2)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 2% (-1)

Five-way ballot:

Biden 48% (-3)
Trump 47% (+1)
Hawkins 1% (+1)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
West 1% (n/c)
Some other candidate 1% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
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Buzz
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2020, 04:52:15 PM »
I refuse to buy false hope in Arizona.  Already did that with Nevada in 2016 and promised myself never again.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2020, 04:57:17 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 28, 2020, 04:52:15 PM
I refuse to buy false hope in Arizona.  Already did that with Nevada in 2016 and promised myself never again.

The EV totals in AZ don't look very good for Republicans either for a state that's essentailly a VBM state.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2020, 04:58:55 PM »
Combined with multiple GA +5 polls, multiple double digit lead national polls, and a WI +17 poll today? Yeah, these don't bother me one bit. Throw 'em in the average.

Says a lot if this is the best Trump can do anywhere this close to the election.
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Badger
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2020, 06:46:40 PM »

Stop.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2020, 06:51:45 PM »

It looks like the 2018 LimoLiberal is taking over again. It's almost like a Jekyll and Hyde situation.
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